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British Economic Growth and the Business Cycle, 1700-1870: Annual Estimates

Author

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  • Broadberry, Stephen; Van Leeuwen, Bas

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper provides the first annual GDP series for Great Britain over the period 1700-1870. The series is constructed in real terms from the output side, using volume indicators and value added weights. Sectoral estimates are provided for agriculture, industry and services, and for a number of sub-sectors. Estimates of nominal GDP are also provided, based on a benchmark for 1841 and projected back to 1700 and forward to 1870 using the real output series and sectoral price indices. The new data are used to provide a consistent account of economic growth and the business cycle. The results are broadly consistent with the long run path of real output suggested by Crafts and Harley, although growth rates for sub-periods differ, largely as a result of changes in the growth of agriculture. Nominal GDP increased more rapidly than suggested by Lindert and Williamson during the eighteenth century, and more slowly than suggested by Deane and Cole during the first half of the nineteenth century, as a result of differences in the price indices. We also refine the business cycle chronologies of Ashton and Gayer, Rostow and Schwartz.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadberry, Stephen; Van Leeuwen, Bas, 2010. "British Economic Growth and the Business Cycle, 1700-1870: Annual Estimates," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 20, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:20
    as

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    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/20.2010_broadberry_complete.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
    2. N. F. R. Crafts & C. K. Harley, 1992. "Output growth and the British industrial revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 45(4), pages 703-730, November.
    3. Lindert, Peter H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1982. "Revising England's social tables 1688-1812," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 385-408, October.
    4. N. F. R. Crafts, 1976. "English Economic Growth in the Eighteenth Century: A Re-Examination of Deane and Cole's Estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 29(2), pages 226-235, May.
    5. Harley, C. Knick, 1988. "Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740–1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(04), pages 851-876, December.
    6. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
    7. Harley, C.K., 1988. "Ocean Freight Rates And Productivity, 1740-1913: The Primacy Of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8802, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    8. Sara Horrell & Jane Humphries & Martin Weale, 1994. "An input-output table for 1841," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(3), pages 545-566, August.
    9. Peter King, 2006. "The production and consumption of bar iron in early modern England and Wales," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(1), pages 264-264, February.
    10. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
    11. Feinstein, Charles H., 1998. "Pessimism Perpetuated: Real Wages and the Standard of Living in Britain during and after the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(03), pages 625-658, September.
    12. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    13. Richard Perren, 1975. "The Meat and Livestock Trade in Britain, 1850–70," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 28(3), pages 385-400, August.
    14. Bogart, Dan, 2005. "Turnpike trusts and the transportation revolution in 18th century England," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 479-508, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen; Campbell, Bruce; Klein, Alexander; Overton, Mark, Van Leeuwen, Bas., 2010. "English Economic Growth, 1270-1700," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 21, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Radoslaw Stefanski, 2014. "Dirty Little Secrets: Inferring Fossil-Fuel Subsidies from Patterns in Emission Intensities," OxCarre Working Papers 134, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Broadberry, Stephen; Gupta, 2010. "Indian GDP, 1600 -1870: Some Preliminary Estimates Comparison with Britain," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 07, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Bottomley, Sean, 2014. "Patenting in England, Scotland and Ireland during the Industrial Revolution, 1700-1852," IAST Working Papers 14-07, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    5. Broadberry, Stephen N & Gupta, Bishnupriya, 2010. "Indian GDP Before 1870: Some Preliminary Estimates and a Comparison with Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 8007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kevin O’Rourke & Ahmed Rahman & Alan Taylor, 2013. "Luddites, the industrial revolution, and the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 373-409, December.
    7. Alexandra M. de Pleijt, 2011. "The Role of Human Capital in the Process of Economic Development: The Case of England, 1307-1900," Working Papers 0021, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.

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