IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfr/cefirw/w0227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Albert S. Kyle

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

  • Anna Obizhaeva

    (New Economic School)

Abstract

For five stock market crashes, we compare price declines with predictions from market microstructure invariance. During the 1987 crash and the sales by Soci?et?e G?en?erale in 2008, prices fell by magnitudes similar to predictions from invariance. Larger-than-predicted temporary price declines during two flash crashes suggest rapid selling exacerbates transitory price impact. Smaller-than-predicted price declines for the 1929 crash suggest slower selling stabilized prices and less integration made markets more resilient. Quantities sold in the three largest crashes suggest fatter tails or larger variance than the log-normal distribution estimated from portfolio transitions data.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes," Working Papers w0227, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP227.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    2. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(01), March.
    5. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
    6. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    7. Robert Mackay, 1988. "After the Crash: Linkages Between Stocks and Futures," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 921556, September.
    8. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gammill, James F, Jr & Marsh, Terry A, 1988. "Trading Activity and Price Behavior in the Stock and Stock Index Futures Markets in October 1987," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 25-44, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jagannathan, Ravi & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schaumburg, Ernst & Sherman, Mila Getmansky & Yuferova, Darya, 2022. "Recovery from fast crashes: Role of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: A Microstructural Interpretation," Papers 2108.00242, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Hu, Conghui & Liu, Yu-Jane & Zhu, Ning, 2021. "Deleveraging commonality," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2020. "Adverse Selection and Liquidity: From Theory to Practice," Working Papers w0268, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Sida Li & Xin Wang & Mao Ye, 2019. "Who Provides Liquidity, and When?," NBER Working Papers 25972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Albert J. Menkveld & Bart Zhou Yueshen, 2019. "The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4470-4488, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2020. "Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes," Working Papers w0269, New Economic School (NES).
    2. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes," Working Papers w0227, New Economic School (NES).
    3. Albert S Kyle & Anna A Obizhaeva, 2023. "Large Bets and Stock Market Crashes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2163-2203.
    4. Fernandes, Marcelo & Mergulhão, João, 2016. "Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-90.
    5. Chunhua Chen & Chuntai Jin & Tianze Li & Steven X. Zheng, 2018. "IPO valuation and offering size," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(2), pages 95-120, May.
    6. Afego, Pyemo N., 2017. "Effects of changes in stock index compositions: A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 228-239.
    7. Elliott, William B. & Songur, Hilmi, 2016. "The role of arbitrage risk on the elasticity of demand: New evidence from 100% secondary equity offerings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 165-172.
    8. Škrinjarić Tihana, 2019. "Effects of changes in stock market index composition on stock returns: event study methodology on Zagreb Stock Exchange," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 43-54, May.
    9. Atanasov, Vladimir & Merrick, John, 2011. "Financial asset demand is elastic: Evidence from new issues of Federal Home Loan Bank debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3225-3239.
    10. Kashyap, Anil K & Kovrijnykh, Natalia & Li, Jian & Pavlova, Anna, 2021. "The benchmark inclusion subsidy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 756-774.
    11. Chen, Carl R. & Diltz, J. David & Huang, Ying & Lung, Peter P., 2011. "Stock and option market divergence in the presence of noisy information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2001-2020, August.
    12. Konstantina Kappou & Ioannis Oikonomou, 2016. "Is There a Gold Social Seal? The Financial Effects of Additions to and Deletions from Social Stock Indices," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 533-552, February.
    13. Terence C. Burnham & Harry Gakidis & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2017. "Investing in the Presence of Massive Flows: The Case of MSCI Country Reclassifications," NBER Working Papers 23557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Zhang, Yue, 2015. "The securitization of gold and its potential impact on gold stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 309-326.
    15. Wang, Chuan & Murgulov, Zoltan & Haman, Janto, 2015. "Impact of changes in the CSI 300 Index constituents," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 13-33.
    16. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    17. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. William B. Elliott & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Mark D. Walker & Richard S. Warr, 2006. "What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 31-48, December.
    19. Terence C. Burnham & Harry Gakidis & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2017. "A Flexible and Customizable Method for Assessing Cognitive Abilities," Working Papers 17-10, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    20. Kappou, Konstantina & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2008. "A re-examination of the index effect: Gambling on additions to and deletions from the S&P 500's [`]gold seal'," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 325-350, September.
    21. Randall Morck & Fan Yang, 2001. "The Mysterious Growing Value of S&P 500 Membership," NBER Working Papers 8654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    finance; market microstructure; invariance; crashes; liquidity; price impact; market depth; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Babich (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cefirru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.