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The Distribution of Profit Shifting

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Clifford
  • Jakob Miethe
  • Camille Semelet

Abstract

Key MessagesTax haven subsidiaries are instrumental in multinational profit shiftingProfit shifting is concentrated in firms exceeding the EUR 750 million revenue threshold of the recently introduced global minimum tax (GMT)The GMT captures 95 percent of shifted profits from German multinationalsGMT compliance costs are modest compared to the revenues raised by large multinational firmsPursuing a consistent policy remains preferable even in light of the recent US exemption

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Clifford & Jakob Miethe & Camille Semelet, 2025. "The Distribution of Profit Shifting," EconPol Policy Brief 78, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katarzyna Bilicka & Michael Devereux & İrem Güçeri & Katarzyna Anna Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & Irem Guceri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," CESifo Working Paper Series 11458, CESifo.
    2. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "The Missing Profits of Nations," Post-Print halshs-04928943, HAL.
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    4. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "The Missing Profits of Nations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1499-1534.
    5. Youssef Benzarti, 2020. "How Taxing Is Tax Filing? Using Revealed Preferences to Estimate Compliance Costs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 38-57, November.
    6. Bustos, Sebastian & Pomeranz, Dina & Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos & Vila-Belda, José & Zucman, Gabriel, 2022. "The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers 17347, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Gaul, Johannes & Klein, Daniel & Müller, Jessica M. & Pfrang, Alina & Schulz, Inga & Spengel, Christoph & Weck, Stefan & Wickel, Sophia & Winter, Sarah, 2022. "Significant costs, limited benefits: A global minimum tax in Germany," ZEW policy briefs 7/2022e, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Barbara Bratta & Vera Santomartino & Paolo Acciari, 2024. "Assessing Profit Shifting Using Country-by-Country Reports: A Nonlinear Response to Tax Rate Differentials," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 349-380.
    9. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hindriks, Jean & Nishimura, Yukihiro, 2025. "Minimum tax, tax haven and the foreign direct investment," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2025023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Flora Bellone & Charlie Joyez & Xavier Poulet-Goffard, 2026. "Tax Avoidance by Small Multinationals as a Side Effect of Anti Tax Avoidance Policy," GREDEG Working Papers 2026-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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