Economic Growth in Africa: Comparing Recent Improvements with the "lost 1980s and early 1990s" and Estimating New Growth Trends
In the first part of the paper we look at economic growth in Africa over the past three decades. We divide the past three decades into two parts: A â€žlost period" from 1981 to 1995 and a â€žrecovery period" since the second half of the 1990s. During the first period, Africa did not catch up but lost ground, Africaâ€™s average per capita income declined. Since the mid-1990s the continent started to catch-up. The boom in the oil price and other raw material prices during the past decade explains only part of this rebound. Many countries also benefited from greater political stability and economic reforms. Although the improved growth performance has helped to improve human development and reduce poverty, poverty levels remain high in many countries and more needs to be done to make growth more "inclusive". In the second part we estimate the trend growth rates for Africa and several individual countries. We use the Hodrick-Prescott filter with different values for the smoothing parameter lamda. For some countries we specify time-varying values for lamda in order to model breaks in the level and the growth rates of GDP trend. For Africa as a hole and for most countries we find relatively low trend growth rates until the mid-nineties. Since then the trend growth rates rose remarkably - for Africa from 2 % to about 5 %. In the last five years we observe a slight decrease to about 4Â½ %.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flaig Gebhard, 2015.
"Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik),
De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 518-538, December.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2012. "Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," CESifo Working Paper Series 3816, CESifo Group Munich.
- Elsa V. Artadi & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003.
"The Economic Tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
9865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elsa V. Artadi & Xavier Sala-i-Martín, 2003. "The economic tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa," Economics Working Papers 684, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2009.
"Inequality and the Impact of Growth on Poverty: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 726-745.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 2008. "Inequality and the Impact of Growth on Poverty: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2009. "Inequality and the Impact of Growth on Poverty: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 9809, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
- D.S.G. Pollock, 2007. "Investigating Economic Trends And Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Apr 2008.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Kalwij, Adriaan & Verschoor, Arjan, 2007. "Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 805-829, May.
- Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.