IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lec/leecon/07-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating Economic Trends And Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • D.S.G. Pollock

Abstract

Methods are described for extracting the trend from an economic data sequence and for isolating the cycles that surround it. The latter often consist of a business cycle of variable duration and a perennial seasonal cycle. There is no evident point in the frequency spectrum where the trend ends and the business cycle begins. Therefore, unless it can be represented by a simple analytic function, such as an exponential growth path, there is bound to be a degree of arbitrariness in the definition of the trend. The business cycle, however defined, is liable to have an upper limit to its frequency range that falls short of the Nyquist frequency, which is the maximum observable frequency in sampled data. This must be taken into account in fitting an ARMA model to the detrended data.

Suggested Citation

  • D.S.G. Pollock, 2007. "Investigating Economic Trends And Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Apr 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:07/17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp07-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. S. G. Pollock, 2002. "A review of TSW: the Windows version of the TRAMO-SEATS program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 291-299.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blöchl, Andreas, 2014. "Trend Estimation with Penalized Splines as Mixed Models for Series with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers in Economics 18446, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," MPRA Paper 39021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Willi Leibfritz & Gebhard Flaig, 2013. "Economic Growth in Africa: Comparing Recent Improvements with the "lost 1980s and early 1990s" and Estimating New Growth Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 4215, CESifo.
    4. D.S.G. Pollock, 2009. "IDEOLOG: A Program for Filtering Econometric Data -- A Synopsis of Alternative Methods," EHUCHAPS, in: Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 15-44, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    5. Pollock Stephen D.S.G., 2009. "Statistical Fourier Analysis: Clarifications and Interpretations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-49, April.
    6. W. A. Wan Omar & Fauzi Hussin & Asan Ali G. H., 2014. "The Trend Analysis of Islamization in Malaysia Using Islamization Index as Indicator," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(10), pages 1298-1313, October.
    7. D.S.G. Pollock, 2018. "The Manual for IDEOLOG.PAS. A Program for Filtering Econometric Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 19/09, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    8. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Band spectral estimation for signal extraction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 54-69, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Talha Yalta & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2007. "GRETL 1.6.0 and its numerical accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 849-854.
    2. Guy Mélard, 2016. "On some remarks about SEATS signal extraction," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 53-98, March.
    3. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    4. Stephen Pollock, 2014. "Trends Cycles and Seasons: Econometric Methods of Signal Extraction," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/04, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    5. Gilles Teyssière, 2005. "Structural time series modelling with STAMP 6.02," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 571-577, May.
    6. Gilles Teyssière, 2005. "Structural time series modelling with STAMP 6.02," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 571-577.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:07/17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abbie Sleath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.