Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States
In this paper we propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate differentials in a monetary union, such as EMU. To achieve this, we build on the new neoclassical synthesis (NNS) framework, recently advanced by Goodfriend (2002) and Goodfriend and King (2000). Based on the NNS setup, we discuss the inflationary consequences of the catching-up process in a heterogeneous monetary union. In particular, we explore the interaction between catching-up and inflation differentials and offer an interpretation of the nature of this interaction. Our discussion is in stark contrast to the conventional Balassa-Samuelson (BS) interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate that divergent inflation rates between Member States do not necessarily have to be an equilibrium phenomenon, even if the original shock comes from the supply-side of the economy. Second, we show how a centralized monetary policy may produce such divergence of individual country’s inflation rates when countries differ in size and in trend productivity growth. Against this background, we additionally show how the catching may potentially lead to unsustainable credit booms in a catching-up member country. Finally, we indicate some important deficiencies of the BS model as a guide to short- and medium-run policy making analysis.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, .
"Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,"
32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan M. Taylor & Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005.
"Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle,"
511, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2006. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2041-2066, November.
- Bergin, Paul R & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "Productivity, Tradability and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Working Paper Series 2004-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 10569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey, 1996. "Trends in European Productivity and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 9610, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- J. Peter Neary, 1987.
"Determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate,"
198748, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-15, March.
- Neary, J Peter, 1987. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Gottfries, Nils, 2003. "Booms and Busts in EMU," Working Paper Series 2003:29, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003.
"Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Leon Podkaminer, 2003.
"Analytical notes on the Balassa-Samuelson effect,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 207-221.
- Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.