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The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research

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  • Jerome L. Stein

Abstract

This paper applies the NATREX model of equilibrium exchange rates to evaluate several key studies of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) in general, with particular emphasis upon the Czech Republic and Hungary and with references to Poland and Bulgaria. On the basis of the NATREX model, we evaluate several key studies to answer the questions: How can the trends in the real exchange rates of the transition economies be explained? What are sustainable trends in their real exchange rates? To what extent were the real exchange rates misaligned? What are sustainable/equilibrium current account deficits and net investment positions in the medium and in the long-run? What are the policy implications for the transition economies of the NATREX analysis?

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 1449, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1449
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1449.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria; An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 04/37, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Vaclav Klaus, 2004. "Implications of this year's EU Enlargement: A preliminary Analysis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 5(3), pages 61-63, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Nicholas Anthony, 2013. "Examining measures of the equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Macroeconomic Balance and the Natural Real Exchange Rate Approaches," MPRA Paper 61170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition economies; NATREX model; equilibrium real exchange rates; current account deficits; euro area;

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