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The Limits of a Broad VAT Cut: Pass-Through Heterogeneity and Welfare Interpretation

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Barczay
  • Shafik Hebous
  • Tom Zimmermann

Abstract

This paper studies heterogeneity in the pass-through of Germany's temporary VAT reduction in July 2020. Using confidential product-level CPI data, we document substantial dispersion in consumer-price responses: nearly half of standard-rate products show no consumer-price change, while 30 percent exhibit full pass-through. Lower-income households experienced somewhat larger proportional price declines than higher-income households. Using an inverse-optimality consistency test, we show that, once the full revenue loss is considered, the reform cannot be rationalized by any progressive weighting of gains across income groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Barczay & Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2026. "The Limits of a Broad VAT Cut: Pass-Through Heterogeneity and Welfare Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 12922, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ingvil Gaarder, 2019. "Incidence and Distributional Effects of Value Added Taxes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 853-876.
    2. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Kosonen, 2020. "What Goes Up May Not Come Down: Asymmetric Incidence of Value-Added Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(12), pages 4438-4474.
    3. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2018. "Firm types, price-setting strategies, and consumption-tax incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 48-72.
    4. Kosonen, Tuomas, 2015. "More and cheaper haircuts after VAT cut? On the efficiency and incidence of service sector consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-100.
    5. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2025. "The pass-through of temporary VAT rate cuts: evidence from German supermarket retail," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 51-97, February.
    6. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni, 2019. "Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 38-63, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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