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Total Solar Irradiance: Evidence from a Long-Memory Model

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Maria Fatima Romero-Rojo

Abstract

This paper analyses aggregated data (5 days period) on total solar irradiance (TSI) based on the 3D MHD numerical simulations of solar surface and atmosphere (Yeo et al., 2017), from 30 April 2010 to 8 July 2023. It improves upon earlier studies by including in the sample the most recent satellite observations and by applying fractional integration methods. These are more general than alternative ones and the most suitable to obtain evidence on the stochastic properties of the series, such as its degree of persistence, and the transitory or permanent effects of shocks. The results indicate that TSI is characterised by long-range dependence or long-memory behaviour, with an order of integration higher than 0 and smaller than 1 and evidence of non-linearities; thus, the effects of shocks are long-lived. Further, the recursive analysis indicates a changing pattern across the sample period. In terms of climate change, the key issue remains the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Maria Fatima Romero-Rojo, 2026. "Total Solar Irradiance: Evidence from a Long-Memory Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 12408, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Almorox, Javier & Voyant, Cyril & Bailek, Nadjem & Kuriqi, Alban & Arnaldo, J.A., 2021. "Total solar irradiance's effect on the performance of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: An empirical-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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