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From the Black Market to Legalisation: The Causal Impact of Cannabis Reform in Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Liberatore
  • Anna Pettini
  • Alberto Tonini

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of legalising cannabis production for industrial and pharmaceutical use in Morocco, paying particular attention to reducing illegal cultivation. Using an original dataset compiled from multiple sources and employing an advanced econometric approach based on the Synthetic Control Method, the study provides robust evidence of a substantial decrease in illegal production as a consequence of the reform. The results have two main implications. First, for Morocco, regulated legalisation emerges as an effective policy tool for reducing the informal economy, with positive effects on tax revenues and international trade. For Europe, and Italy in particular, the reform introduced in the North African country creates new opportunities for the supply of medical cannabis, providing an alternative or supplementary source that could help to alleviate the ongoing shortage of cannabis intended for medical use.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Liberatore & Anna Pettini & Alberto Tonini, 2025. "From the Black Market to Legalisation: The Causal Impact of Cannabis Reform in Morocco," CESifo Working Paper Series 12305, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    2. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    3. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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