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Food Fight: U.S. Exporters' Adjustments to Russia's 2014 Agricultural Import Ban

Author

Listed:
  • Emek Basker
  • Fariha Kamal

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2014 food-import ban on U.S. firms that exported banned products to Russia. Using confidential customs transaction data, we implement triple-difference and dosage-response approaches to identify how firms adjust to the sudden loss of a market. Following the ban, treated firms experienced a 30 percentage-point decrease in the probability of exporting banned food to Russia relative to control firms. However, there is substantial heterogeneity by pre-ban reliance on the Russian market: heavily reliant firms were significantly less likely to survive once the ban was in place, and survivors experienced large reductions in revenue (19%) and total export value (49%) for each standard deviation increase in Russian market exposure. We find evidence of export redirection to neighboring countries, though it is insufficient to offset losses. Any negative impacts on survivors dissipate by five years post-ban.

Suggested Citation

  • Emek Basker & Fariha Kamal, 2025. "Food Fight: U.S. Exporters' Adjustments to Russia's 2014 Agricultural Import Ban," Working Papers 25-79, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-79
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2025/adrm/ces/CES-WP-25-79.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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