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Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration

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  • Ravulaparthy, Srinath
  • Goulias, Konstadinos G.

Abstract

In this project we develop a new travel demand forecasting system that integrates demographic microsimulation with urban simulation and travel demand model systems. Our research objective is to identify the barriers in integrating complex simulation models and eliminate them by offering a demonstration of problems and solutions. The basic ingredients of this new model system are: a) a dynamic demographic simulator designed and tested with repeated observations of the same individuals in another context that will be transferred to a case study in Santa Barbara, CA; b) a modified version of the recently finalized Urbansim model that will also be calibrated with data from Santa Barbara, CA; and c) travel demand models that account for intrahousehold interactions and path based accessibility that were estimated with data from California. The model system is unique because it combines within a day and across years human behavior dynamics and it will push the frontier of modeling and simulation one step further. A demonstration of a pilot test is offered using data from Santa Barbara, CA.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravulaparthy, Srinath & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2011. "Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2x12q5pv, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt2x12q5pv
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    1. J D Landis, 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 21(4), pages 399-420, August.
    2. Landis, John D., 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9pb6g3g6, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. M. Spielauer, 2000. "Microsimulation of Life Course Interactions between Education, Work, Partnership Forms and Children in Five European Countries," Working Papers ir00032, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. Daniel Courgeau & Monique Meron, 1995. "Mobilité résidentielle, activité et vie familiale des couples," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 290(1), pages 17-31.
    5. Paul Waddell & Liming Wang & Billy Charlton & Aksel Olsen, 2010. "Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 65-84.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Moretti & Adam Whitworth, 2023. "Estimating the Uncertainty of a Small Area Estimator Based on a Microsimulation Approach," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 52(4), pages 1785-1815, November.

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