IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/uctcwp/qt2x12q5pv.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration

Author

Listed:
  • Ravulaparthy, Srinath
  • Goulias, Konstadinos G.

Abstract

In this project we develop a new travel demand forecasting system that integrates demographic microsimulation with urban simulation and travel demand model systems. Our research objective is to identify the barriers in integrating complex simulation models and eliminate them by offering a demonstration of problems and solutions. The basic ingredients of this new model system are: a) a dynamic demographic simulator designed and tested with repeated observations of the same individuals in another context that will be transferred to a case study in Santa Barbara, CA; b) a modified version of the recently finalized Urbansim model that will also be calibrated with data from Santa Barbara, CA; and c) travel demand models that account for intrahousehold interactions and path based accessibility that were estimated with data from California. The model system is unique because it combines within a day and across years human behavior dynamics and it will push the frontier of modeling and simulation one step further. A demonstration of a pilot test is offered using data from Santa Barbara, CA.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravulaparthy, Srinath & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2011. "Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2x12q5pv, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt2x12q5pv
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/2x12q5pv.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Courgeau & Monique Meron, 1995. "Mobilité résidentielle, activité et vie familiale des couples," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 290(1), pages 17-31.
    2. J D Landis, 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 21(4), pages 399-420, August.
    3. Landis, John D., 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9pb6g3g6, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. M. Spielauer, 2000. "Microsimulation of Life Course Interactions between Education, Work, Partnership Forms and Children in Five European Countries," Working Papers ir00032, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. Paul Waddell & Liming Wang & Billy Charlton & Aksel Olsen, 2010. "Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 65-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Moretti & Adam Whitworth, 2023. "Estimating the Uncertainty of a Small Area Estimator Based on a Microsimulation Approach," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 52(4), pages 1785-1815, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Myung-Jin Jun, 2012. "The effects of Seoul’s greenbelt on the spatial distribution of population and employment, and on the real estate market," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 619-642, December.
    3. Still, B. G. & May, A. D. & Bristow, A. L., 1999. "The assessment of transport impacts on land use: practical uses in strategic planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 83-98, April.
    4. Tschangho John Kim & Jinsoo You & Seung-kwan Lee, 1998. "An integrated urban systems model with GIS," ERSA conference papers ersa98p374, European Regional Science Association.
    5. David Levinson, 2004. "The Evolution of Transport Networks," Working Papers 200510, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    6. Dagmar Haase, 2005. "Derivation of robust predictor variables for modelling urban shrinkage and its effects at different scales," ERSA conference papers ersa05p322, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Lin, Huiyan & Lu, Kang Shou & Espey, Molly & Allen, Jeffery, 2005. "Modeling Urban Sprawl and Land Use Change in a Coastal Area-- A Neural Network Approach," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19364, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Zimu Jia & Long Chen & Jingjia Chen & Guowei Lyu & Ding Zhou & Ying Long, 2020. "Urban modeling for streets using vector cellular automata: Framework and its application in Beijing," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1418-1439, October.
    9. David M. Levinson, 2013. "Introduction: The Journal of Transport and Land Use enters year six," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 6(1), pages 1-5.
    10. Weiguo Liu & Karen C Seto, 2008. "Using the ART-MMAP Neural Network to Model and Predict Urban Growth: A Spatiotemporal Data Mining Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(2), pages 296-317, April.
    11. Brice BAROIS, 2020. "Le rôle attractif des industries créatives et culturelles dans la localisation des jeunes en France," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 45-64.
    12. Luis E Fernandez & Daniel G Brown & Robert W Marans & Joan I Nassauer, 2005. "Characterizing Location Preferences in an Exurban Population: Implications for Agent-Based Modeling," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 32(6), pages 799-820, December.
    13. Qing Shen, 2000. "New Telecommunications and Residential Location Flexibility," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(8), pages 1445-1463, August.
    14. J Landis & M Zhang, 1998. "The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 1: Model Logic and Theory," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 25(5), pages 657-666, October.
    15. Daniel Stevens & Suzana Dragićević, 2007. "A GIS-Based Irregular Cellular Automata Model of Land-Use Change," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 708-724, August.
    16. Harvey J Miller, 2005. "Necessary Space—Time Conditions for Human Interaction," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 32(3), pages 381-401, June.
    17. Marko Kryvobokov & Aurélie Mercier & Alain Bonnafous & Dominique Bouf, 2013. "Simulating housing prices with UrbanSim: predictive capacity and sensitivity analysis," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, March.
    18. Nicolas Fleury & Fabrice Gilles, 2012. "MOBILITES INTERGENERATIONNELLES DE CAPITAL HUMAIN ET RESTRUCTURATIONS INDUSTRIELLES. UNE EVALUATION POUR LE CAS DE LA France, 1946-1999," Working Papers hal-00988949, HAL.
    19. Michael Wegener & Franz Fuerst, 2004. "Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art," Urban/Regional 0409005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. R E Klosterman, 1999. "The What If? Collaborative Planning Support System," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 26(3), pages 393-408, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt2x12q5pv. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.