Derivation of robust predictor variables for modelling urban shrinkage and its effects at different scales
Currently, we observe diverging processes of growth and shrinkage in European Cities. Whereas in the 80ies and 90ies partially accelerated through the crash of the socialist system mostly urban growth and suburban development occurred in European Cities, today we find a general decline of population as well as an increase of aged people (as results of the demographic change in Europe and worldwide, Cloet 2003, Lutz 2001). These processes influence land use pattern (state of the environment) and land use changes in urban areas enormously. Land use pattern reflect the current socio-economic development of an urban area and give an idea of how the urban ecosystem is influenced by man. In doing so, for instance, surface sealing reduces the filtering and remediation capacity of soils and the water retention in general as well as minimises habitat quality for wetland species. At the same time, the ecosystem(s) provide so-called ecosystem services, benefits people obtain from ecosystems: water availability, drinking water, remediation and filtering of waste, places to settle, recreation facilities in nature and others. Their quantification enables to bring the change (availability/loss) of ecosystem services into relation with effective costs (economic sphere, Farber 2002, De Groot et al. 2002). The above mentioned population decline and related shrinkage processes will have enormous consequences on the demand and availability of ecosystem services needed to sustain a high and even increasing status of quality of life for European citizens in the next future. Therefore, the predictor variables describing on the one hand shrinkage-related land use changes and on the other its effects are most important but at the same time it is still a challenge; to extract such predictor variables from a huge catalogue of urban socio-economic and environmental indicators elaborated by many studies for different landscape types and scales; to derive relevant digital and spatially explicit data as model input to calculate the effects of land use (change) and; to validate the model results at the city and the quarter level (scale) as well as to prove the response of the (gained/released) ecosystem service (environmental quality) at the city and at quarter level (closing the circle). Here, the author will give some expressive examples showing the derivation of predictor variables for modelling peri-urban growth and inner city shrinkage as well as its effects on water balance, habitat quality (urban green network) and recreational space. Of major interest is the approach of how to tackle the problem of urban shrinkage in spatially explicit land use (change) modelling (Haase et al. 2004).
|Date of creation:||Aug 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Groot, Rudolf S. & Wilson, Matthew A. & Boumans, Roelof M. J., 2002. "A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 393-408, June.
- J D Landis, 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: a new generation of metropolitan simulation models," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 21(4), pages 399-420, July.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1997.
"Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment,"
NBER Working Papers
6221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June.
- Caballero, R.J. & Hammour, M.L., 1997. "Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor-Substitution, and Unemployment," Working papers 97-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- K C Clarke & S Hoppen & L Gaydos, 1997. "A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(2), pages 247-261, March.
- Deutsch, Lisa & Folke, Carl & Skanberg, Kristian, 2003. "The critical natural capital of ecosystem performance as insurance for human well-being," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2-3), pages 205-217, March.
- Landis, John D., 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9pb6g3g6, University of California Transportation Center.
- Ekins, Paul & Folke, Carl & De Groot, Rudolf, 2003. "Identifying critical natural capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2-3), pages 159-163, March.
- F Wu & C J Webster, 1998. "Simulation of land development through the integration of cellular automata and multicriteria evaluation," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 25(1), pages 103-126, January.
- Bolund, Per & Hunhammar, Sven, 1999. "Ecosystem services in urban areas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 293-301, May.
- R White & G Engelen & I Uljee, 1997. "The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(3), pages 323-343, May.
- Kathleen P. Bell & Nancy E. Bockstael, 2000. "Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems Involving Microlevel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 72-82, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.