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A Model of Household Demand for Activity Participation and Mobility

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  • Golob, Thomas F.
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    With modern multivariate statistical methods and activity-diary (time-use) data sets, it is possible to model household mobility decisions as being derived from decisions to participate in activities at various locations. We show how this can be accomplished by specifying activity participation by activity type and location as endogenous variables, with a simple locational distinction of “at home†versus “out of home.†The activity participation variables are then combined in a model system of simultaneous equations with variables that measure mobility demand: travel times by mode, household vehicle ownership and household vehicle utilization. We specify the model in terms of latent, multivariate normally distributed choice variables, and this treatment solves estimation problems associated with censored and ordinal observed endogenous variables. The estimation method provides accurate goodness-of-fit model evaluation and hypothesis testing. Results are shown from a model estimated using two-day activity diary data for male and female household heads and associated accessibility data collected in the Portland, Oregon, U.S.A. Metropolitan Area in 1994. The model system can be used in conjunction with conventional travel demand models, to provide forecasts of the effects of factors such as accessibility and in-home work, on travel demand by mode, car ownership, and car vehicle miles of travel. This type of model system has the potential of replacing some existing demand forecasting models.

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    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/00g9770f.pdf;origin=repeccitec
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    Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt00g9770f.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 1996
    Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt00g9770f
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    1. Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "The Dynamics of Household Travel Time Expenditures and Car Ownership Decisions," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1676t0bp, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Golob, Thomas F. & Van Wissen , Leo, 1989. "A Joint Household Travel Distance Generation and Car Ownership Model," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt16h8h2gh, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Golob, Thomas F. & van Wissen, Leo, 1989. "A joint household travel distance generation and car ownership model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 471-491, December.
    4. Goulias , Konstandinos & Pendyala , Ram & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Practical Method for the Estimation of Trip Generation and Trip Chaining," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2mt5c3c2, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Fair, Ray C, 1977. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(7), pages 1723-1727, October.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    7. Ulf Olsson & Fritz Drasgow & Neil Dorans, 1982. "The polyserial correlation coefficient," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 337-347, September.
    8. E I Pas, 1984. "The Effect of Selected Sociodemographic Characteristics on Daily Travel-Activity Behavior," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(5), pages 571-581, May.
    9. Golob, Thomas F. & Beckmann, Martin J. & Zahavi, Yacov, 1981. "A utility-theory travel demand model incorporating travel budgets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 375-389, December.
    10. Goulias, Konstadinos G. & Pendyala, Ram M. & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Practical Method for The Estimation of Trip Generation And Trip Chaining," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8zx9v3t2, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Golob, Thomas F. & Van Wissen, Leo, 1989. "A Joint Household Travel Distance Generation And Car Ownership Model," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt72h4k912, University of California Transportation Center.
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