IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v116y2018icp497-512.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Microsimulation of vehicle transactions within a life-oriented integrated urban modeling system

Author

Listed:
  • Fatmi, Mahmudur Rahman
  • Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul

Abstract

This paper presents the findings of microsimulating vehicle transaction decisions as a process of first-time vehicle purchase, acquisition, trade, disposal, and transaction or do nothing decisions. Vehicle transaction decision processes are simulated within an agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The influence of life-stage transitions and interactions of decisions at different domains along the life-time is accommodated as lead and lag events within the micro-behavioral models and computational procedures of iTLE. For example, trade and disposal decisions are found to be positively influenced by residential move as 1-year lead and 2-year lead events respectively. The simulation starts by generating baseline information for 2006 and runs for 15 years from 2007 to 2021 for Halifax, Canada. The validation results suggest that the majority of the predicted vehicle ownership levels lie within a few percentage points from the observed population. For instance, zero vehicle ownership is under-represented by 1% only. In terms of microsimulation results, a higher proportion of zero vehicle ownership households is predicted in the Halifax urban core. Households with a higher vehicle ownership level are predicted to reside towards the suburban areas. For vehicle transaction type, a higher proportion of first vehicle purchase is predicted to include lower income younger population. In 2021, the average vehicle per household member is predicted to be 0.72. Around 75% of the households are predicted to own at least one vehicle per household member. At the neighborhood-level, the median value of average vehicle ownership per household is predicted to increase to 1.41 in 2021 from 1.37 in 2007. In summary, this paper offers interesting insights on the spatio-temporal evolution of vehicle ownership and transaction pattern, which will assist in testing alternative transport and land use policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatmi, Mahmudur Rahman & Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul, 2018. "Microsimulation of vehicle transactions within a life-oriented integrated urban modeling system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 497-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:497-512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.06.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856417312739
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2018.06.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Golob, Thomas F. & Van Wissen , Leo, 1989. "A Joint Household Travel Distance Generation and Car Ownership Model," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt16h8h2gh, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna, 2006. "Household vehicle type holdings and usage: an application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-53, January.
    3. Kuhnimhof, Tobias & Buehler, Ralph & Wirtz, Matthias & Kalinowska, Dominika, 2012. "Travel trends among young adults in Germany: increasing multimodality and declining car use for men," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 443-450.
    4. Fatmi, Mahmudur Rahman & Chowdhury, Subeh & Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul, 2017. "Life history-oriented residential location choice model: A stress-based two-tier panel modeling approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 293-307.
    5. Golob, Thomas F. & van Wissen, Leo, 1989. "A joint household travel distance generation and car ownership model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 471-491, December.
    6. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    7. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
    8. Potoglou, Dimitris & Kanaroglou, Pavlos S., 2008. "Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54.
    9. Ryuichi Kitamura, 2009. "A dynamic model system of household car ownership, trip generation, and modal split: model development and simulation experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(6), pages 711-732, November.
    10. Golob, Thomas F. & Van Wissen, Leo, 1989. "A Joint Household Travel Distance Generation And Car Ownership Model," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt72h4k912, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.
    12. Rashidi, Taha Hossein & Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros), 2011. "A dynamic hazard-based system of equations of vehicle ownership with endogenous long-term decision factors incorporating group decision making," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1072-1080.
    13. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "The impact of demographics, built environment attributes, vehicle characteristics, and gasoline prices on household vehicle holdings and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Farooq, Bilal & Bierlaire, Michel & Hurtubia, Ricardo & Flötteröd, Gunnar, 2013. "Simulation based population synthesis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 243-263.
    15. Hjorthol, Randi J. & Levin, Lena & Sirén, Anu, 2010. "Mobility in different generations of older persons," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 624-633.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amarin Siripanich & Taha Rashidi, 2020. "A demographic microsimulation model with an integrated household alignment method," Papers 2006.09474, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Yangwen & Tremblay, Jean-Michel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2014. "An integrated model for discrete and continuous decisions with application to vehicle ownership, type and usage choices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 315-328.
    2. Oakil, Abu Toasin Md & Manting, Dorien & Nijland, Hans, 2016. "Determinants of car ownership among young households in the Netherlands: The role of urbanisation and demographic and economic characteristics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 229-235.
    3. Cinzia Cirillo & Yangwen Liu & Jean-Michel Tremblay, 2017. "Simulation, numerical approximation and closed forms for joint discrete continuous models with an application to household vehicle ownership and use," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 1105-1125, September.
    4. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    5. Abu Toasin Oakil & Dorien Manting & Hans Nijland, 2018. "The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1871-1882, November.
    6. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "The impact of demographics, built environment attributes, vehicle characteristics, and gasoline prices on household vehicle holdings and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    8. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2014. "Shedding light on the appropriateness of the (high) gasoline tax level in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 189-210.
    9. Yao, Mingzhu & Wang, Donggen & Yang, Hai, 2017. "A game-theoretic model of car ownership and household time allocation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 667-685.
    10. Guo, Zhan, 2013. "Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.
    11. Keller, Rose & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Landscape pattern and car use: Linking household data with satellite imagery," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 250-257.
    12. Peter Horbachov & Oleksandr Makarichev & Stanislav Svichynskyi & Ihor Ivanov, 2022. "Framework for designing sample travel surveys for transport demand modelling in cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 115-136, February.
    13. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Ghamami, Mehrnaz & Zockaie, Ali & Xiao, Feng, 2016. "Optimization of incentive polices for plug-in electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 103-123.
    14. Laviolette, Jérôme & Morency, Catherine & Waygood, E.O.D., 2022. "A kilometer or a mile? Does buffer size matter when it comes to car ownership?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "The Dynamics of Household Travel Time Expenditures and Car Ownership Decisions," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2t18b4q9, University of California Transportation Center.
    16. Guo, Jia & Feng, Tao & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2019. "Time-varying dependencies among mobility decisions and key life course events: An application of dynamic Bayesian decision networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 82-92.
    17. Whitehead, Jake & Franklin, Joel P. & Washington, Simon, 2015. "Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 250-267.
    18. Golob, Thomas F., 1996. "A Model of Household Demand for Activity Participation and Mobility," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt00g9770f, University of California Transportation Center.
    19. Ferdous, Nazneen & Eluru, Naveen & Bhat, Chandra R. & Meloni, Italo, 2010. "A multivariate ordered-response model system for adults' weekday activity episode generation by activity purpose and social context," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 922-943, September.
    20. Roorda, Matthew J. & Ruiz, Tomás, 2008. "Long- and short-term dynamics in activity scheduling: A structural equations approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 545-562, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:497-512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.