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The Impossible Trinity (aka The Policy Trilemma)


  • Aizenman, Joshua


The policy Trilemma (the ability to accomplish only two out of three policy objectives –financial integration, exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy) continues to be a validmacroeconomic framework. The financial globalization during 1990s-2000s reduced theweighted average of exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy. An unintendedconsequence of financial globalization has been the growing exposure of developing countries tocostly capital flights and deleveraging crises. Emerging Markets responded by adding financialstabilityto the three Trilemma policy goals, coupling their growing financial integration withlarge hoarding of international reserves, as means of self-insuring their growing exposure tofinancial-turbulences.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "The Impossible Trinity (aka The Policy Trilemma)," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9k29n6qn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt9k29n6qn

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enisse Kharroubi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Monetary independence in a financially integrated world: what do measures of interest rate co-movement tell us?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 193-205 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Srinivas Yanamandra, 2014. "Minsky, Monetary Policy, and Mint Street: Challenges for the Art of Monetary Policymaking in Emerging Economies," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_820, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Rajeswari Sengupta, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity: Where does India stand?," Working Papers id:6659, eSocialSciences.
    4. Sona Benecka & Lubos Komarek, 2014. "International Reserves: Facing Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2014/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.


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