IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/itsrrp/qt68g2h1qv.html

Future of Mobility White Paper

Author

Listed:
  • Shaheen, Susan PhD
  • Totte, Hannah
  • Stocker, Adam

Abstract

Transportation is arguably experiencing its most transformative revolution since the introduction of the automobile. Concerns over climate change and equity are converging with dramatic technological advances. Although these changes – including shared mobility and automation – are rapidly altering the mobility landscape, predictions about the future of transportation are complex, nuanced, and widely debated. California is required by law to renew the California Transportation Plan (CTP), updating its models and policy considerations to reflect industry changes every five years. This document is envisioned as a reference for modelers and decision makers. We aggregate current information and research on the state of key trends and emerging technologies/services, documented impacts on California’s transportation ecosystem, and future growth projections (as appropriate). During 2017, we reviewed an expanded list of 20 topics by referencing state agency publications, peer-reviewed journal articles, and forecast reports from consulting firms and think tanks. We followed transportation newsletters and media sources to track industry developments, and interviewed six experts to explore their opinions on the future of transportation. We consulted an advisory committee of over 50 representatives from local and state transportation agencies, who provided input throughout the project’s evolution. We also obtained feedback on our draft report from a panel of U.S. experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaheen, Susan PhD & Totte, Hannah & Stocker, Adam, 2018. "Future of Mobility White Paper," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt68g2h1qv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt68g2h1qv
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/68g2h1qv.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Circella, Giovanni & Tiedeman, Kate & Handy, Susan & Alemi, Farzad & Mokhtarian, Patricia, 2016. "What Affects Millennials’ Mobility? Part I: Investigating the Environmental Concerns, Lifestyles, Mobility-Related Attitudes and Adoption of Technology of Young Adults in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6wm51523, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan PhD & Zohdy, Ismail, 2016. "Understanding Travel Behavior: Research Scan," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6rp9819m, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    3. Clewlow, Regina R. & Mishra, Gouri S., 2017. "Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt82w2z91j, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Chan, Nelson & Gaynor, Theresa, 2016. "Casual Carpooling in the San Francisco Bay Area: Understanding User Characteristics, Behaviors, and Motivations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4dh2h0rf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Shaheen, Susan A. & Chan, Nelson D. & Gaynor, Teresa, 2016. "Casual carpooling in the San Francisco Bay Area: Understanding user characteristics, behaviors, and motivations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 165-173.
    6. Elliot Martin & Susan Shaheen, 2011. "The Impact of Carsharing on Public Transit and Non-Motorized Travel: An Exploration of North American Carsharing Survey Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(11), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan, 2011. "The Impact of Carsharing on Public Transit and Non-Motorized Travel: An Exploration of North American Carsharing Survey Data," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6xt6d5jv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    8. Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza & Eluru, Naveen & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M. & Rabbat, Michael & Haq, Usama, 2014. "How land-use and urban form impact bicycle flows: evidence from the bicycle-sharing system (BIXI) in Montreal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 306-314.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.
    2. Sanjay Gupta & Kushagra Sinha, 2022. "Assessing the Factors Impacting Transport Usage of Mobility App Users in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Wang, Yiyuan & Shen, Qing, 2023. "An economic analysis of incorporating new shared mobility into public transportation provision," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 263-273.
    4. Shaheen, Susan & Farrar, Emily, 2022. "Vehicle Electrification in Carsharing and Transportation Network Company (TNC) Fleets: Current and Future Trends," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0gz5t8sw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Laura Gebhardt & Christian Wolf & Robert Seiffert, 2021. "“I’ll Take the E-Scooter Instead of My Car”—The Potential of E-Scooters as a Substitute for Car Trips in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Boisjoly, Geneviève & Grisé, Emily & Maguire, Meadhbh & Veillette, Marie-Pier & Deboosere, Robbin & Berrebi, Emma & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2018. "Invest in the ride: A 14 year longitudinal analysis of the determinants of public transport ridership in 25 North American cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 434-445.
    7. Alonso-González, María J. & Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Sascha & van Oort, Niels & Cats, Oded & Hoogendoorn, Serge, 2020. "Drivers and barriers in adopting Mobility as a Service (MaaS) – A latent class cluster analysis of attitudes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 378-401.
    8. Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.
    9. Gehrke, Steven R., 2020. "Uber service area expansion in three major American cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Chae, Kyung Soo & Kim, Sung Hoo & Yan, Xiang, 2025. "Exploring attitudinal group differences in preferences for shared e-scooter use and its integration with public transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Ashour, Lamis Abu & Shen, Qing, 2022. "Incorporating ride-sourcing services into paratransit for people with disabilities: Opportunities and barriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 355-363.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaheen, Susan & Darling, Wesley & Broader, Jacquelyn & Cohen, Adam, 2021. "Understanding Curb Management and Targeted Incentive Policies to Increase Transportation Network Company Pooling and Public Transit Linkages," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6gz9w0v9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    2. Wen, Xiao & Ranjbari, Andisheh & Qi, Fan & Clewlow, Regina R. & MacKenzie, Don, 2021. "Challenges in credibly estimating the travel demand effects of mobility services," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 224-235.
    3. Xu, Yiming & Yan, Xiang & Liu, Xinyu & Zhao, Xilei, 2021. "Identifying key factors associated with ridesplitting adoption rate and modeling their nonlinear relationships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 170-188.
    4. Prateek Bansal & Akanksha Sinha & Rubal Dua & Ricardo Daziano, 2019. "Eliciting Preferences of Ridehailing Users and Drivers: Evidence from the United States," Papers 1904.06695, arXiv.org.
    5. Shaheen, Susan PhD & Cohen, Adam MCRP & Bayen, Alexandre PhD, 2024. "The Benefits of Carpooling," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt7jx6z631, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Shaheen, Susan & Cohen, Adam, 2020. "Chapter 3 - Mobility on demand (MOD) and mobility as a service (MaaS): early understanding of shared mobility impacts and public transit partnerships," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt5030f0cd, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Silvestri, Alessandro & Foudi, Sébastien & Galarraga, Ibon & Ansuategi, Alberto, 2021. "The contribution of carsharing to low carbon mobility: Complementarity and substitution with other modes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Amirmahdi Tafreshian & Neda Masoud & Yafeng Yin, 2020. "Frontiers in Service Science: Ride Matching for Peer-to-Peer Ride Sharing: A Review and Future Directions," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(2-3), pages 44-60, June.
    9. Dianzhuo Zhu, 2017. "More generous for small favour? Exploring the Role of Monetary and Pro-Social Incentives of Daily Ride Sharing Using a Field Experiment in Rural Île-de-France," Post-Print hal-01671234, HAL.
    10. Pérez-Martín, P. & Pedrós, G. & Martínez-Jiménez, P. & Varo-Martínez, M., 2018. "Evaluation of a walking school bus service as an intervention for a modal shift at a primary school in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Griffin, Greg Phillip, 2018. "Co-producing Mobility: Lessons from Ridesharing for a More Just and Sustainable Autonomous Future," SocArXiv xqmhr, Center for Open Science.
    12. Julie Bulteau & Thierry Feuillet & Sophie Dantan & Souhir Abbes, 2023. "Encouraging carpooling for commuting in the Paris area (France): which incentives and for whom?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 43-62, February.
    13. Leonidas G. Anthopoulos & Dimitrios N. Tzimos, 2021. "Carpooling Platforms as Smart City Projects: A Bibliometric Analysis and Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Sun, Yite & Liu, Xiaobing & Wang, Rui & Wang, Yun & Yan, Xuedong, 2025. "Nonlinear effects of built environment on ridesplitting ratio: Discrepancies across sharing motivations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Dianzhuo Zhu, 2022. "Ridesharing: Its potential, challenges, and future in France," Working Papers hal-03994900, HAL.
    16. Mundaca, Luis & Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M., 2022. "Assessing the impacts of social norms on low-carbon mobility options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    17. Yang, Hongtai & Luo, Peng & Li, Chaojing & Zhai, Guocong & Yeh, Anthony G.O., 2023. "Nonlinear effects of fare discounts and built environment on ridesplitting adoption rates," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    18. Izabela Warwas & Aldona Podgórniak-Krzykacz & Justyna Wiktorowicz & Joanna Górniak, 2022. "Demographic and generational determinants of Poles’ participation in the sharing economy: Findings from a survey data analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Jiyeon Jung & Yoonmo Koo, 2018. "Analyzing the Effects of Car Sharing Services on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    20. Manuel Sánchez-Pérez & Nuria Rueda-López & María Belén Marín-Carrillo & Eduardo Terán-Yépez, 2021. "Theoretical dilemmas, conceptual review and perspectives disclosure of the sharing economy: a qualitative analysis," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1849-1883, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt68g2h1qv. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.