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Arbitrage conditions, interest rates, and intertemporal commodity price relationships

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  • Kitchen, John
  • Rausser, Gordon C.

Abstract

Recent studies have presented different views on the relationship between interest rates and commodity prices. The theory of storage and arbitrage approaches fully incorporate nominal interest rates in commodity price spreads. Alternative frameworks admit a relationship between the interest rate and commodity own rates of interest and, as a result, the commodity price spread would not completely incorporate the nominal interest rate. The various views on interest rate-commodity price relationships, the potential role of nonneutralities, and existing empirical evidence are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John & Rausser, Gordon C., 1988. "Arbitrage conditions, interest rates, and intertemporal commodity price relationships," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0831h7hq, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt0831h7hq
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 560-566.
    4. Robert G. Chambers, 1984. "Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short Run," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 12-24.
    5. Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-1455, December.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    7. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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