IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2023-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sanctions, Co-sanctions, and Counter-sanctions: A Multilateral, Evolutionary Game among Three Global Powers

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Facing the sanctions from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly converged to a strong counter-sanction strategy. The US and the EU staggered the strengths of sanctions in turns, with the EU first imposing relatively stronger commercial sanctions first and the US relaying with stronger financial sanctions later. Using US-EU-Russia sanctions as an example, we develop a multilateral, evolutionary game to capture the strategic complementarity between the sanctioners and the sanctionee, as well as the strategic substitutability between the leading sanctioner and the co-sanctioner. In an extended model, the sanction technology is introduced to endogenize how sanctions are designed before deployment. The model is then calibrated to match the summarized stylized facts, to demonstrate the simulated evolutionary paths, and to verify the derived strategic dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Peng & Guo, Dong, 2023. "Sanctions, Co-sanctions, and Counter-sanctions: A Multilateral, Evolutionary Game among Three Global Powers," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_28.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bělín, Matěj & Hanousek, Jan, 2021. "Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 244-257.
    2. Guo, Dong & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "The rise of a new anchor currency in RCEP? A tale of three currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Simola, Heli, 2014. "Russia's restrictions on food imports," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Cressman R., 1995. "Evolutionary Game Theory with Two Groups of Individuals," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-253, November.
    5. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2021. "Strength of words: Donald Trump's tweets, sanctions and Russia's ruble," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 253-277.
    6. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Morgan, T. Clifton & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Dursun Peksen & Jin Mun Jeong, 2022. "Coercive Diplomacy and Economic Sanctions Reciprocity: Explaining Targets’ Counter-Sanctions," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 895-911, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    2. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The limited effectiveness of sanctions on Russia: Modeling loopholes and workarounds," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    4. Tyazhelnikov, Vladimir & Romalis, John, 2024. "Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    6. Yuying Jin & Xue Meng, 2024. "Interdependence and multilateral economic sanctions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 983-1003, March.
    7. Meyer, Klaus E. & Fang, Tony & Panibratov, Andrei Y. & Peng, Mike W. & Gaur, Ajai, 2023. "International business under sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    8. Teemu Makkonen & Timo Mitze, 2021. "Geo-political conflicts, economic sanctions and international knowledge flows," Papers 2112.00564, arXiv.org.
    9. Simola, Heli, 2023. "What the literature says about the effects of sanctions on Russia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Miguel Ángel Almazán‐Gómez & Carlos Llano & Julián Pérez & Daniel Rauhut, 2024. "Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 333-354, March.
    11. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    13. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    15. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "“Crime and Punishment”? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp753, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    16. Jingbo Guo & Zhiyong Wang, 2023. "Spillover effects of RMB exchange rate among RCEP member countries: Empirical evidence from time-frequency domain approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-27, June.
    17. Barnard, Helena & Luiz, John M., 2024. "The South African economic elite and ownership changes in foreign multinationals’ assets during and after Apartheid-era sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(5).
    18. Moteng, Ghislain & Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Njangang, Henri & Nembot, Luc Ndeffo, 2023. "International sanctions and energy poverty in target developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Juan de Lucio & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena, 2024. "Reducing trade with Russia: Sanctions vs. reputation," Working Papers 2406, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    20. Mindlin, Yury & Novikov, Mikhail & Yakovleva, Olga, 2022. "Assessment and ways to increase the rate of return in the Russian medium-sized agricultural enterprises," Russian Peasant Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 7, pages 6-19.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanction; Strategic Dependence; Evolutionary Game Theory;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.