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Is the Rational Addiction model inherently impossible to estimate?

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  • Audrey Laporte
  • Adrian Rohit Dass
  • Brian Ferguson

Abstract

The Rational Addiction (RA) model is increasingly often estimated using individual level panel data with mixed results; in particular, with regard to the implied rate of time discount. This paper suggests that the odd values of the rate of discount frequently found in the literature may in fact be a consequence of the saddle-point dynamics associated with individual level inter-temporal optimization problems. We report the results of Monte Carlo experiments estimating RA-type difference equations that seem to suggest the possibility that the presence of both a stable and an unstable root in the dynamic process may create serious problems for the estimation of RA equations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Audrey Laporte & Adrian Rohit Dass & Brian Ferguson, 2015. "Is the Rational Addiction model inherently impossible to estimate?," Working Papers 150011, Canadian Centre for Health Economics, revised Jun 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:cch:wpaper:150011
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    File Function: Revised version, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Audrey Laporte & Alfia Karimova & Brian Ferguson, 2010. "Quantile regression analysis of the rational addiction model: investigating heterogeneity in forward‐looking behavior," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(9), pages 1063-1074, September.
    2. Brian S. Ferguson, 2000. "Interpreting the rational addiction model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(7), pages 587-598.
    3. Olekalns, Nilss & Bardsley, Peter, 1996. "Rational Addiction to Caffeine: An Analysis of Coffee Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1100-1104, October.
    4. Dockner, Engelbert J & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1993. "Cyclical Consumption Patterns and Rational Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 256-263, March.
    5. Grossman, Michael & Chaloupka, Frank J & Sirtalan, Ismail, 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of Alcohol Addiction: Results from the Monitoring the Future Panels," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 39-48, January.
    6. Bent Nielsen & J. James Reade, 2007. "Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second-Order Autoregression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 487-501.
    7. Grossman, Michael & Chaloupka, Frank J., 1998. "The demand for cocaine by young adults: a rational addiction approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 427-474, August.
    8. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-742, August.
    9. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "On The Use Of Panel Data Methods To Estimate Rational Addiction Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Badi H. Baltagi & Ingo Geishecker, 2006. "Rational alcohol addiction: evidence from the Russian longitudinal monitoring survey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 893-914.
    11. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    12. Pierpaolo Pierani & Silvia Tiezzi, 2011. "Infrequency of Purchase, Individual Heterogeneity and Rational Addiction in Single Households’ Estimates of Alcohol Consumption," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 70(2), pages 93-116, July.
    13. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    14. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.
    15. Kaili Shen & David Giles, 2006. "Rational exuberance at the mall: addiction to carrying a credit card balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 587-592.
    16. Nielsen, Bent, 2008. "On the Explosive Nature of Hyper-Inflation Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    17. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1991. "Rational Addiction and the Effect of Price on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 237-241, May.
    18. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
    19. Andrew Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2014. "A Synthesis of the Grossman and Becker-Murphy Models of Health and Addiction: Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 140007, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H & Griffin, James M, 2001. "The Econometrics of Rational Addiction: The Case of Cigarettes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 449-454, October.
    21. A. Sisto & R. Zanola, 2010. "Cinema attendance in Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 515-517.
    22. Audrey Laporte & Adrian Rohit Dass & Brian Ferguson, 2016. "On a Possible Problem in the Estimation of Saddle-point Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 160004, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Smoking kills: An economic theory of addiction, health deficit accumulation, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Pierani, P.; Tiezzi, S.;, 2017. "Rational addiction and time consistency:an empirical test," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 17/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. D. Dragone & D. Raggi, 2018. "Testing Rational Addiction: When Lifetime is Uncertain, One Lag is Enough," Working Papers wp1119, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational Addiction model; dynamic time series; dynamic panel;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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