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What Drives Systemic Bank Risk in Europe: the balance sheet effect

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  • Wosser, Michael

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) several systemic risk measures (SRMs) have gained traction in the literature. This paper examines whether Delta-CoVaR (?CoVaR) is relevant in the context of European banks and compares risk rankings against those found using marginal expected shortfall (MES). The analysis reveals that a cluster of large banks, operating in one particular country, is the principal contributor to financial system risk, if measured by ?CoVaR. When the direction of risk flow is reversed, i.e. from the system to the institution (via MES), a second cluster of banks, headquartered in a different jurisdiction, would be most affected by a large and systemic financial shock. The analysis reveals that future realisations of systemic risk is strongly associated with institution size, maturity mismatch, non-performing loans and non-interest-to-interest-income ratios. However, in certain cases, the relationship depends upon the systemic risk measure used. For example, forward bank leverage appears correlated with MES but not with ?CoVaR.

Suggested Citation

  • Wosser, Michael, 2017. "What Drives Systemic Bank Risk in Europe: the balance sheet effect," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:08/rt/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes K. Dreyer & Peter A. Schmid & Victoria Zugrav, 2018. "Individual, Systematic and Systemic Risks in the Danish Banking Sector," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(4), pages 320-350, September.
    2. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2022. "Exploring the Systemic Risk of Domestic Banks with ΔCoVaR and Elastic-Net," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 127-141, October.
    3. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    4. Mihir Dash, 2021. "Non-Performing Loans and Systemic Risk of Indian Banks," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 10(1), pages 10-20, April.
    5. Hallissey, Niamh & Killeen, Neill & Wosser, Michael, 2022. "Identifying and assessing systemic risks in Ireland: a review of the Central Bank’s toolkit," Financial Stability Notes 16/FS/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Neill, Ashleigh, 2024. "Banking on resilience: EU macroprudential policy and systemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 678-699.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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