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The Future of Global Financial Centres after Brexit: an EU Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Calò, Silvia

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Herzberg, Valerie

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This note presents a set of possible directions for the future of London and other financial centres in Europe after Brexit. It does so by building scenarios framed by the current landscape of financial services in the EU. We find that given the sizeable gap between London and other financial centres in Europe and London’s international orientation London is likely to remain a very large global financial centre even in more adverse scenarios. According to our analysis, the impact of fundamental factors on London could be very small due to the 'premium' it enjoys, not captured by size or productivity. Yet, the premium could be eroded and it may be sensitive to 1) a possible realignment of perceptions, and 2) abrupt changes in regulation and centrality due to new trading arrangements, disruption in global value chains, and institutional reshaping and associated uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Calò, Silvia & Herzberg, Valerie, 2019. "The Future of Global Financial Centres after Brexit: an EU Perspective," Financial Stability Notes 9/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:fsnote:9/fs/19
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