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From Forward Guidance to Data Dependence: Temporality and Complexity in ECB Communication After the Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Byrne, David

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Goodhead, Robert

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McMahon, Michael

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Naylor, Matthew

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Parle, Conor

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The ECB’s communication strategy has changed in recent years, driven first by reforms from the 2021 Strategy Review and then by the post-pandemic inflation surge. Its communication has shifted rapidly from forward guidance to giving detailed information on its reaction function and its evaluation of data. Focusing on the Monetary Policy Statement, which is delivered at ECB press conferences, we examine these changes through the dimensions of temporal orientation and textual complexity. We find that the reforms led communication to be less semantically complex and to have fewer references to the past, reflecting reduced emphasis on evaluating data. However, as inflation rose and the ECB became “data-dependent”, its discussions of past data became more detailed again. While communication remained less semantically complex, it became more conceptually complex. This suggests a trade-off: giving more information on data and the reaction function may result in more conceptually complex communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, David & Goodhead, Robert & McMahon, Michael & Naylor, Matthew & Parle, Conor, 2025. "From Forward Guidance to Data Dependence: Temporality and Complexity in ECB Communication After the Pandemic," Economic Letters 2/EL/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:2/el/25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Byrne, David & Goodhead, Robert & Mcmahon, Michael & Parle, Conor, 2023. "The Central Bank Crystal Ball: Temporal information in monetary policy communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 17930, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mcmahon, Michael & Naylor, Matthew, 2023. "Getting through: Communicating complex information," CEPR Discussion Papers 18537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2016. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 114-133.
    4. Andrew Haldane & Michael McMahon, 2018. "Central Bank Communications and the General Public," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 578-583, May.
    5. David O. Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2009. "Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements," NBER Working Papers 15367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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