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Stay, Split or Overthrow: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Esteban, J.
  • Flamand, S.
  • Morelli, M.
  • Rohner, D.

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple model aimed at predicting under what conditions on fundamentals one should expect that a conflict, conditional on occurring, takes the form of a secessionist conflict or centrist conflict. We show that the relative group size of the involved opposition group, the relative intensity of perceived cultural differences, and the time discount factor, all affect the relative likelihood of secessionist conflict over centrist conflict in a clear manner, leading to testable pre-dictions supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban, J. & Flamand, S. & Morelli, M. & Rohner, D., 2026. "Stay, Split or Overthrow: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2621, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2621
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominic Rohner, 2024. "Mediation, Military, and Money: The Promises and Pitfalls of Outside Interventions to End Armed Conflicts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 155-195, March.
    2. Hannes Mueller & Dominic Rohner & David Schönholzer, 2022. "Ethnic Violence Across Space," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(642), pages 709-740.
    3. Axelrod, Robert & Bennett, D. Scott, 1993. "A Landscape Theory of Aggregation," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 211-233, April.
    4. Michael D. König & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1093-1132, July.
    5. Guillem López Casasnovas & Joan Rosselló Villalonga, 2014. "Fiscal Imbalances in Asymmetric Federal Regimes. The Case of Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 209(2), pages 55-97, June.
    6. Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2024. "Ethnic Conflict and the Informational Dividend of Democracy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 73-116.
    7. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    9. Friedman, David, 1977. "A Theory of the Size and Shape of Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 59-77, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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