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Supply Shocks and the ‘Natural Rate of Interest': an Exploration

  • Chadha, J.S.
  • Nolan, C.

We develop two variants of an open economy general equilibrium model employing Blanchard-Yaari life overlapping generations, which are shown to capture a number of important aspects of the UK economic cycle. We analyse the equilibrium stochastic processes of the model’s endogenous variables in response to two primitive driving processes: total factor productivity and various measures of total factor productivity corrected for capacity utilisation over the cycle. We find, following Vickers’ (2000) suggestion, that the marginal product of capital is procyclical. Interestingly, we find that the difference between the procyclical real rate from the artificial economies and the observed real rate seems to play a role in explaining the UK inflation and output outcomes.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/wp0103.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0103.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0103
Note: Ma
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Notes on Growth Accounting," NBER Working Papers 6654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  3. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  5. Chadha, J. S. & Janssen, N. & Nolan, C.Author-X-Name-First: C., 2001. "Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Zvi Griliches, 1996. "The Discovery of the Residual: A Historical Note," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1324-1330, September.
  7. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  9. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Millard, Stephen & Scott, Andrew & Sensier, Marianne, 1997. "The Labour Market over the Business Cycle: Can Theory Fit the Facts?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 70-92, Autumn.
  11. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  12. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
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