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Quantifying the impact of higher capital requirements on the Swiss economy

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  • Junge, Georg
  • Kugler, Peter

    () (University of Basel)

Abstract

So far the discussion in Switzerland about the social costs and benefits of higher capital requirements resulting from the new Basel III Accord and the Swiss Too Big To Fail legislation has been heavily qualitative. This paper provides a quantitative view and estimates the long-run costs and benefits of substantially higher capital requirements using empirical evidence on Swiss banks to assess both benefits and costs. The analysis yields two main conclusions. The long-run economic benefits of higher capital requirements are substantial for the Swiss economy leading to a significantly lower probability of banking crises and associated expected losses. In contrast the costs of higher capital requirements as reflected in increased lending spreads and potential output reductions are literally non-existent. As an aside we note that the cyclical component of leverage is a major driver of leverage in the banking sector. This suggests that macro-prudential measures such as the countercyclical buffer could be an important tool against the build-up of systemic banking crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Junge, Georg & Kugler, Peter, 2012. "Quantifying the impact of higher capital requirements on the Swiss economy," Working papers 2012/13, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2012/13
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    File URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/61602/1/20180307162844_5aa0052c5d3cd.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2010. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_42, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
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    1. repec:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:5:f:7_5_1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital regulation; banks; cost of equity; banking crisis; economic growth; Modigliani-Miller;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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