IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bon/boncrc/crctr224_2020_142v2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Gender Differences in Employment Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Sena Coskun
  • Husnu Dalgic

Abstract

Fertility in the US has exhibited a procyclical pattern since the 1970s. We argue that gender differences in employment risk leads to procyclical fertility: men tend to work in volatile and procyclical industries, while women are more likely to work in relatively stable and countercyclical industries. The relative gender employment gap is countercyclical as women become breadwinners in recessions, producing an insurance effect of female income. Our quantitative framework features a general equilibrium OLG model with endogenous fertility and human capital choice and shows that the current gender industry composition in the US data fully accounts for the procyclicality observed. We can also generate countercyclical fertility, as observed in the 1960s, either when the female income share is low or procyclical. Finally, we argue that the insurance effect of female income in bad times tilts the quality-quantity trade-off towards quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Sena Coskun & Husnu Dalgic, 2020. "The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Gender Differences in Employment Risk," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_142v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_142v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/en/research-output/discussion-papers/discussion-papers#DP142
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Webster, Allan & Khorana, Sangeeta & Pastore, Francesco, 2021. "The Labour Market Impact of Covid-19: Early Evidence for a Sample of Enterprises from Southern Europe," GLO Discussion Paper Series 815, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Titan Alon & Sena Coskun & Matthias Doepke & David Koll & Michèle Tertilt, 2021. "From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions," NBER Working Papers 28632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Titan Alon & Sena Coskun & Matthias Doepke & David Koll & Michèle Tertilt, 2021. "From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guner, Nezih & Kulikova, Yuliya & Valladares-Esteban, Arnau, 2020. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 12923, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Jose Cuesta & Julieth Pico, 2020. "The Gendered Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Colombia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1558-1591, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; fertility cyclicality; industry cyclicality; gender asymmetric employment; gender income gap; quality-quantity trade-off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_142v2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.crctr224.de/en .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CRC Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.crctr224.de/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.