Using copulas to construct bivariate foreign exchange distributions with an application to the sterling exchange rate index
We model the joint risk-neutral distribution of the euro-sterling and the dollar-sterling exchange rates using option-implied marginal distributions that are connected via a copula function that satisfies the triangular no-arbitrage condition. We then derive a univariate distribution for a simplified sterling effective exchange rate index. Our results indicate that standard parametric copula functions, such as the commonly used Normal and Frank copulas, fail to capture the degree of asymmetry observed in the data. We overcome this problem by using a non-parametric dependence function in the form of a Bernstein copula which is shown to produce a very close fit. We further give an example of how our approach can be used to price currency index options.
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- Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
- Andrew Patton, 2004. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," Working Papers wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Eytan, T Hanan & Harpaz, Giora, 1986. " The Pricing of Futures and Options Contracts on the Value Line Index," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 843-855, September.
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