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Impacto económico regional del Covid-19 en Colombia: un análisis insumo-producto

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime Bonet-Morón

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Diana Ricciulli-Marín

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Eduardo A. Haddad
  • Inácio F. Araújo
  • Fernando S. Perobelli

Abstract

El principal objetivo de este documento es evaluar el impacto económico regional y sectorial de las medidas de aislamiento preventivo ordenadas por el Gobierno Nacional para evitar la propagación del Covid-19. A través de un modelo insumo-producto, se estima la pérdida económica que resulta de extraer un grupo de empleados formales e informales de los distintos sectores y entidades territoriales del país. Los resultados señalan pérdidas económicas que varían entre $4,6 billones y $59 billones por mes de acuerdo con los escenarios de aislamiento considerados, cifras que representan entre 0,5% y 6,1% del PIB nacional. La rama económica de servicios aparece como la más afectada, donde se destacan las actividades de alojamiento y servicios de comida, servicios inmobiliarios, servicios administrativos, actividades profesionales y técnicas, construcción y comercio. Por su parte, los departamentos de Antioquia, Boyacá, San Andrés, Santander y Valle del Cauca aparecen como los más vulnerables a estas medidas. **** ABTRACT: The aim of this paper is to assess the regional economic impact of the lockdown measures ordered by Colombia's national government to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Using an input-output model, we estimate the economic loss of extracting a group of formal and informal workers of different sectors of the economy. Results show an economic loss that ranges between $4.6 and 59 trillion Colombian pesos monthly, which represents between 0.5% and 6.1% of national GDP, depending on the scenario considered. The branch of services is the most affected, where accommodation and food services, real estate services, administrative services, professional and technical activities, construction and commerce stand out for their losses. Moreover, the departments of Antioquia, Boyacá, San Andrés, Santander and Valle del Cauca appear to be highly vulnerable to these measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Bonet-Morón & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte & Eduardo A. Haddad & Inácio F. Araújo & Fernando S. Perobelli, 2020. "Impacto económico regional del Covid-19 en Colombia: un análisis insumo-producto," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 288, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:288
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.288
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.288
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amaral Haddad, Eduardo & Fernandes de Araújo Junior, Inácio & Galvis-Aponte, Luis Armando, 2019. "Matriz Insumo-Producto Interregional de Colombia, 2015 (Nota Técnica)," TD NEREUS 10-2019, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    2. Haddad, Eduardo Amaral & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Araújo, Inácio Fernandes, 2020. "Input-Output Analysis of COVID-19: Methodology for Assessing the Impacts of Lockdown Measures," TD NEREUS 1-2020, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
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    Cited by:

    1. María Aguilera-Díaz & Rocío Mora-Quiñones & Carolina Ramírez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Bogotá y área de influencia: Tendencias económicas en las primeras dos décadas del siglo XXI," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 291, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; matriz insumo-producto interregional; desarrollo regional; Covid-19; inter-regional input-output matrix; regional development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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