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¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa

  • Carlos Esteban Posada


  • Andrés Felipe García


La literatura referente a los modelos de inflación y política monetaria anti-inflacionaria del tipo denominado Inflation Targeting (IT) ha reforzado una opinión popular: que la inflación tiene poca o ninguna relación con el aumento de la cantidad de dinero. Esta opinión es contraria a una de las más viejas teorías económicas: la teoría cuantitativa del dinero (TCD). En las siguientes páginas se establece la relación entre un modelo básico de IT y la TCD, y se aclaran un caso de irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero: el de la trampa de liquidez o caso keynesiano-radical. Este caso se contrapone a los otros casos, que sí son compatibles con la TCD. Por último, se reporta evidencia favorable a la hipótesis de pertinencia de la TCD para el caso colombiano reciente (1986: I 2005:III).

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 403.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:403
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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  3. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2005. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0506, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  4. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
  5. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1997. "Fisher and Wicksell on the quantity theory," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 71-90.
  7. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
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