US tariffs and Italian firms: mapping network exposure and early impact from survey data

This paper examines the exposure of Italian firms to the US market following the 2025 tariff shock and presents early evidence of its impact using business survey data. Leveraging a unique dataset that integrates domestic firm-to-firm transactions, customs records, firm registries, and employment data, we map the production network of 1.8 million firms and quantify both direct and indirect exposure to US sales. Exposure levels vary significantly across firms and regions, with some local labour markets considerably more vulnerable than the national average. Drawing on survey data from the Bank of Italy, we find that approximately 20% of firms reported sales declines driven by tariff-related disruptions during the first three quarters of the year, although often a moderate one, and 25% expected drops in the final quarter. Linking survey responses with firm-level exposure, we show that both direct and indirect measures significantly predict negative sales outcomes and expectations driven by tariff-related disruptions. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for domestic production networks when assessing the effects of trade shocks and designing targeted policy interventions to mitigate localized economic vulnerabilities.