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Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada

  • Perrier, Patrick
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    In this study, the author uses survey data on inflationary expectations to obtain information about the credibility of Canada's monetary policy. By comparing the differences between the forecasts made by survey participants with the targets set by the Bank of Canada for the 1992-1996 period (the period covered by the study), it was possible to determine empirically whether the targets were credible. Likewise, analyzing the forecasting errors by participants made it possible to check whether setting these targets contributed to making inflation more predictable. The empirical results stemming from the analysis of the differences between the forecasts and the targets suggest that the targets were credible for the period under consideration. Indeed, for a one-year horizon, forecasters predicted a rate of inflation that was very close to the median of the target range. Analysis of the actual forecasting errors suggest also that the setting of targets contributed to reducing forecasting errors relative to the reference index and that Canadian monetary policy became more effective after the targets were implemented.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp98-12.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 98-12.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:98-12
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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    1. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1998. "Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche 9803, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    2. Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    4. Robert Amano & Don Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1999. "Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 81, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    6. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
    7. Guy Debelle, 1996. "The Ends of Three Small Inflations: Australia, New Zealand and Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 56-78, March.
    8. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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