IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/07-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Chung
  • Bryan Campbell
  • Scott Hendry

Abstract

In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. Both approaches estimate a vector error correction model that permits the separation of long-run price movements from short-run market microstructure effects. As well, we follow Yan and Zivot (2004) who introduce size measures of a market's adjustment to a new equilibrium during the price discovery process. We find that, on an average day, just over 70% of price discovery occurs on the futures market where bid-ask spreads are lower and trading activity is higher. The size of the responses to shocks and the time taken to adjust to a new equilibrium are found to be significantly larger for the cash market.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Chung & Bryan Campbell & Scott Hendry, 2007. "Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets," Staff Working Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp07-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988. " Liquidity and Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    5. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    6. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Staff Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.
    7. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    8. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    9. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    2. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Jaehun CHOI & Hosung LIM & Rogelio Jr. MERCADO & Cyn-Young PARK, 2015. "Price Discovery and Foreign Participation in Korea's Government Bond Cash and Futures Markets," Working Papers 2015-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.