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Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets

Author

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  • Christopher Chung
  • Bryan Campbell
  • Scott Hendry

Abstract

In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. Both approaches estimate a vector error correction model that permits the separation of long-run price movements from short-run market microstructure effects. As well, we follow Yan and Zivot (2004) who introduce size measures of a market's adjustment to a new equilibrium during the price discovery process. We find that, on an average day, just over 70% of price discovery occurs on the futures market where bid-ask spreads are lower and trading activity is higher. The size of the responses to shocks and the time taken to adjust to a new equilibrium are found to be significantly larger for the cash market.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Chung & Bryan Campbell & Scott Hendry, 2007. "Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets," Staff Working Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    4. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    6. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    7. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Staff Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.
    10. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    11. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    12. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
    13. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2002. "Stalking the "efficient price" in market microstructure specifications: an overview," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 329-339, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    3. Jaehun CHOI & Hosung LIM & Rogelio Jr. MERCADO & Cyn-Young PARK, 2015. "Price Discovery and Foreign Participation in Korea's Government Bond Cash and Futures Markets," Working Papers 2015-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    4. Aldrich, Eric M. & Lee, Seung, 2018. "Relative spread and price discovery," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 81-98.
    5. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    6. Edson Kambeu, 2017. "The role of Exchange Traded Funds in the price discovery process of stocks listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 141-148, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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