IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bav/wpaper/091_pinkwart.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty About the Persistence of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Pinkwart

Abstract

This paper offers several contributions to actual research and discussion on monetary policy. It clarifies the relationship between uncertainty of inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy and discusses the consequences of the recent Blanchard proposal to implement a higher inflation target in the light of parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, it provides insights of general interest on the methodological level by analyzing the interrelations between normalization of variables and their independence properties and by extending standard solution methods of dynamic programming problems to non-orthogonal parameter uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Pinkwart, 2010. "Uncertainty About the Persistence of Inflation," Working Papers 091, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:091_pinkwart
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bgpe.cms.rrze.uni-erlangen.de/files/2023/07/091_Uncertainty-About-the-Persistence-of-Inflation.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    5. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    7. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    8. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-431, February.
    9. Ben Martin, 1999. "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 105, Bank of England.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:101:y:1999:i:3:p:337-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:1:p:125-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    13. Levin, Andrew & Gürkaynak, Refet & Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
    15. Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 540, European Central Bank.
    16. Fidel Gonzalez, 2008. "Optimal Policy Response with Control Parameter and Intercept Covariance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 1-20, February.
    17. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    2. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-431, February.
    3. Séverine Menguy, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 121-141.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    6. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    11. Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: The response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1527-1567.
    12. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    13. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    15. Bernhard Herz & Stefan Hohberger, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Regimes and Current Account Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 118-136, February.
    16. Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2005. "Communication, learning and optimal monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 33c69063-eed7-4938-9f51-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 309, Stockholm School of Economics.
    18. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    19. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 65, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:091_pinkwart. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Barabasch (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vierlde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.