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Modelling the Term Structure with Trends in Yields and Cycles in Excess Returns

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  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes

Abstract

This paper proposes an Affine Macro Term Structure model in which yields are drifting, sharing a common stochastic trend driven by the drift in short-term (monetary policy) rates and excess returns are stationary as the compensation for risk is driven by the cycles in yields. We apply the approach to US data and compare the empirical results from the new specification with those obtained from standard Affine Term Structure models. The cycle-trend decompositionbased Affine Term Structure model produces much better forecasts of the dynamics of yields and, consequently, different and stationary dynamics for the term premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo A. Favero & Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes, 2023. "Modelling the Term Structure with Trends in Yields and Cycles in Excess Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23210, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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