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Monetary Policy in the COVID Era and Beyond: the Fed vs the ECB

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  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes

Abstract

This study examines monetary policy during and post-COVID by analysing innovative specifications for monetary policy rules based on data from before the pandemic. It models trends in short-term rates using a stochastic trend, driven by potential output growth, demographic age distribution, and inflation expectations both the US and the Eurozone. The cyclical variations in shortterm rates are associated with monetary policy through the conventional Taylor rule indicators. Whilst the standard model is robust for the US both in and outof- sample, the Eurozone displays less consistent in-sample results and marked deviations in out-of-sample tests. Addressing the ECB’s concerns about bond market fragmentation doesn’t yield better results. Instead, a model in which the ECB follows the US example with caution and delay proves more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo A. Favero & Ruben Fernandez-Fuertes, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the COVID Era and Beyond: the Fed vs the ECB," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23209, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Bisetti, Emilio & Favero, Carlo A. & Nocera, Giacomo & Tebaldi, Claudio, 2017. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 2251-2275, October.
    3. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    4. Uhlig, Harald, 2007. "Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?," MPRA Paper 14119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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