IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awi/wpaper/0741.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution

Author

Listed:
  • Diekert, Florian
  • Goeschl, Timo
  • König-Kersting, Christian

Abstract

Can Attribution Science, a method for quantifying – ex post – humanity’s contribution to adverse climatic events, induce pro-environmental behavioral change? We conduct a conceptual test of this question by studying, in an online experiment with 3,031 participants, whether backwards-looking attribution affects future decisions, even when seemingly uninformative to a consequentialist decision-maker. By design, adverse events can arise as a result of participants’ pursuit of higher payoffs (anthropogenic cause) or as a result of chance (natural cause). Treatments vary whether adverse events are causally attributable and whether attribution can be acquired at cost. We find that ex-post attributability is behaviorally relevant: Attribution to an anthropogenic cause reduces future anthropogenic stress and leads to fewer adverse events compared to no attributability and compared to attribution to a natural cause. Average willingness-to-pay for ex-post attribution is positive. The conjecture that Attribution Science can be behaviorally impactful and socially valuable has empirical merit.

Suggested Citation

  • Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0741
    Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-343416
    File Function: Frontdoor page on HeiDOK
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/34341/7/Behavioral_Economics_Extreme_Event_Attribution_dp741_2024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina Demski & Stuart Capstick & Nick Pidgeon & Robert Gennaro Sposato & Alexa Spence, 2017. "Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 149-164, January.
    2. Jan Willem Erisman & Guy Brasseur & Philippe Ciais & Nick van Eekeren & Thomas L. Theis, 2015. "Global change: Put people at the centre of global risk management," Nature, Nature, vol. 519(7542), pages 151-153, March.
    3. Michael Siegrist & Bernadette Sütterlin, 2014. "Human and Nature‐Caused Hazards: The Affect Heuristic Causes Biased Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1482-1494, August.
    4. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
    5. Tobias Pfrommer & Timo Goeschl & Alexander Proelss & Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard & Henrike Martin & Ulrike Niemeier & Hauke Schmidt, 2019. "Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 67-84, January.
    6. Shreedhar, Ganga & Mourato, Susana, 2020. "Linking human destruction of nature to COVID-19 increases support for wildlife conservation policies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105297, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    8. Rupert F. Stuart-Smith & Friederike E. L. Otto & Aisha I. Saad & Gaia Lisi & Petra Minnerop & Kristian Cedervall Lauta & Kristin Zwieten & Thom Wetzer, 2021. "Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 651-655, August.
    9. Gea Hoogendoorn & Bernadette Sütterlin & Michael Siegrist, 2020. "The climate change beliefs fallacy: the influence of climate change beliefs on the perceived consequences of climate change," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1577-1589, December.
    10. Kevin E. Trenberth & John T. Fasullo & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2015. "Attribution of climate extreme events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 725-730, August.
    11. Shaun Larcom & Po-Wen She & Terry Gevelt, 2019. "The UK summer heatwave of 2018 and public concern over energy security," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 370-373, May.
    12. Hilary Boudet & Leanne Giordono & Chad Zanocco & Hannah Satein & Hannah Whitley, 2020. "Event attribution and partisanship shape local discussion of climate change after extreme weather," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 69-76, January.
    13. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    14. Paul A. Hindsley & O. Ashton Morgan, 2020. "The Role of Cultural Worldviews in Willingness to Pay for Environmental Policy," Working Papers 20-03, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    15. Tatyana Deryugina, 2013. "How do people update? The effects of local weather fluctuations on beliefs about global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 397-416, May.
    16. Brian A. Grantham & Francis Chan & Karina J. Nielsen & David S. Fox & John A. Barth & Adriana Huyer & Jane Lubchenco & Bruce A. Menge, 2004. "Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6993), pages 749-754, June.
    17. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Globally networked risks and how to respond," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7447), pages 51-59, May.
    18. Bulte, Erwin & Gerking, Shelby & List, John A. & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2005. "The effect of varying the causes of environmental problems on stated WTP values: evidence from a field study," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 330-342, March.
    19. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    20. Hazlett, Chad & Mildenberger, Matto, 2020. "Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1365, November.
    21. Daniel L. Chen & Martin Schonger & Chris Wickens, 2016. "oTree - An open-source platform for laboratory, online, and field experiments," Post-Print hal-04315125, HAL.
    22. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    23. Henri F. Drake & Geoffrey Henderson, 2022. "A defense of usable climate mitigation science: how science can contribute to social movements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    24. Chen, Daniel L. & Schonger, Martin & Wickens, Chris, 2016. "oTree—An open-source platform for laboratory, online, and field experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 88-97.
    25. Ganga Shreedhar & Susana Mourato, 2020. "Linking Human Destruction of Nature to COVID-19 Increases Support for Wildlife Conservation Policies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 963-999, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    2. Henrik Thorén & Johannes Persson & Lennart Olsson, 2021. "A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    4. John McClure & Ilan Noy & Yoshi Kashima & Taciano L. Milfont, 2022. "Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Henri F. Drake & Geoffrey Henderson, 2022. "A defense of usable climate mitigation science: how science can contribute to social movements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Aglaé Jézéquel & Vivian Dépoues & Hélène Guillemot & Mélodie Trolliet & Jean-Paul Vanderlinden & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Behind the veil of extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 367-383, August.
    7. Aditya N. Mishra & Douglas Maraun & Raphael Knevels & Heimo Truhetz & Alexander Brenning & Herwig Proske, 2023. "Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Rebecca Newman & Ilan Noy, 2023. "The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    10. Michael Siegrist & Joseph Árvai, 2020. "Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2191-2206, November.
    11. Tobias Pfrommer & Timo Goeschl & Alexander Proelss & Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard & Henrike Martin & Ulrike Niemeier & Hauke Schmidt, 2019. "Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 67-84, January.
    12. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    13. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    14. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    15. Mathieu Chevrier & Vincent Teixeira, 2024. "Algorithm Control and Responsibility: Shifting Blame to the User?," GREDEG Working Papers 2024-04, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    16. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Blanco, Esther & Baier, Alexandra & Holzmeister, Felix & Jaber-Lopez, Tarek & Struwe, Natalie, 2022. "Substitution of social sustainability concerns under the Covid-19 pandemic," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    18. Duffy, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A., 2023. "Market reactions to stock splits: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 325-345.
    19. Andrea Guido & Alejandro Martinez-Marquina & Ryan Rholes, 2022. "Reference Dependence and the Role of Information Frictions," GREDEG Working Papers 2022-17, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    20. Przepiorka, Wojtek, 2023. "Laboratory experiments," SocArXiv 9cxq2, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.