IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2608.10175.html

Beyond Cash Flows: A Multi-Agent AI Framework for Valuing Clinical-Stage, Cross-Border Biotechnology

Author

Listed:
  • Yuhan Fang

Abstract

A new class of software systems is transforming investment analysis. Large language model agents assembled into collaborative team structures including analysts, researchers, and risk managers are increasingly deployed across financial markets. Yet current multi-agent frameworks share a critical limitation: they rely on the foundational assumption that companies can be valued through traditional cash flows. This paradigm fails in clinical-stage biotechnology, where enterprise value depends entirely on binary scientific and regulatory milestones. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces a specialized multi-agent framework. Its valuation layer translates qualitative scientific judgment into defensible valuations for pre-revenue assets; its cross-market coordination layer reconciles pricing across international venues simultaneously; and its conflict-fusion mechanism systematically arbitrates between bullish scientific conviction and cautious regulatory constraints in a domain-specific manner. Crucially, the architecture is not a speculative design: it encodes a method the author first executed by hand as sole portfolio manager of China's first dedicated cross-border biotechnology fund, a human practice that returned 127.17% against a 50.67% benchmark within sixteen months. That record is evidence for the underlying method rather than for any AI system; no implementation is evaluated here. This paper presents the framework at the architectural level, establishing foundational design principles for extending agentic investment systems into complex, event-driven asset classes they currently serve poorly.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuhan Fang, 2026. "Beyond Cash Flows: A Multi-Agent AI Framework for Valuing Clinical-Stage, Cross-Border Biotechnology," Papers 2608.10175, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.10175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.10175
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    3. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Grabowski, Henry G. & Hansen, Ronald W., 2016. "Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 20-33.
    4. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    5. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    6. Tianyu Zhou & Pinqiao Wang & Yilin Wu & Hongyang Yang, 2024. "FinRobot: AI Agent for Equity Research and Valuation with Large Language Models," Papers 2411.08804, arXiv.org.
    7. David Kellogg & John M. Charnes, 2000. "Real-Options Valuation for a Biotechnology Company," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 76-84, May.
    8. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    9. Froot, Kenneth A. & Dabora, Emil M., 1999. "How are stock prices affected by the location of trade?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 189-216, August.
    10. Tianjiao Zhao & Jingrao Lyu & Stokes Jones & Harrison Garber & Stefano Pasquali & Dhagash Mehta, 2025. "AlphaAgents: Large Language Model based Multi-Agents for Equity Portfolio Constructions," Papers 2508.11152, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael & Weistroffer, Christian, 2023. "Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 354-380.
    2. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    3. Sheridan Titman & Chishen Wei. Wei & Bin Zhao, 2021. "Corporate Actions and the Manipulation of Retail Investors in China: An Analysis of Stock Splits," NBER Working Papers 29212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James Brugler & Minsoo Kim & Zhuo Zhong, 2024. "Liquidity shocks and pension fund performance: Evidence from early access," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 170-191, May.
    5. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2020. "Do fire sales create externalities?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 602-628.
    6. Ritter, Jay R., 2003. "Behavioral finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 429-437, September.
    7. Dunhong Jin & Marcin Kacperczyk & Bige Kahraman & Felix Suntheim, 2022. "Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-End Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 1-50.
    8. Chunxin Jia & Yaping Wang & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Social Trust and Differential Reactions of Local and Foreign Investors to Public News," NBER Working Papers 21075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bagattini, Giulio & Fecht, Falko & Maddaloni, Angela, 2023. "Liquidity support and distress resilience in bank-affiliated mutual funds," Working Paper Series 2799, European Central Bank.
    10. Qian, Meijun & Tanyeri, Başak, 2017. "Litigation and mutual-fund runs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-135.
    11. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2016. "Liquidity Transformation in Asset Management: Evidence from the Cash Holdings of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 22391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Broman, Markus S., 2020. "Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel, 2020. "Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia," Discussion Papers 38/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Rzeźnik, Aleksandra, 2025. "Skilled active liquidity management: Evidence from shocks to fund flows," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. Suin Lee & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2024. "Interstate migration networks and stock return comovement," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 89-121, March.
    17. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2021. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118887, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Kerstin Awiszus & Agostino Capponi & Stefan Weber, 2022. "Market Efficient Portfolios in a Systemic Economy," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 715-728, March.
    19. Martin Rohleder & Dominik Schulte & Marco Wilkens, 2017. "Management of flow risk in mutual funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 31-56, January.
    20. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.10175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.