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Accelerating fossil gas independence in Europe

Author

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  • Lukas Franken
  • Iegor Riepin
  • Tom Brown

Abstract

Recent price shocks have prompted calls to curb Europe's dependence on fossil gas imports, but the cost of this goal, and the consumer protection it affords, remain uncertain. Here we address this gap by imposing constraints on fossil gas supply in a European energy system model that co-optimises abatement across all gas uses at high spatio-temporal resolution. Cutting import reliance proves economically compelling: through savings in power generation and low-temperature heat in industry and buildings, Europe can halve its natural gas consumption for 16bnEUR/a, aligning demand with the continent's production capacity of 200 bcm. This extra system cost is comparable to what consumers spend today on a 2 EUR/MWh rise in gas import prices. However, this sovereignty alone does not shield consumers from global gas price volatility: we find that, even at a small share of the mix, gas remains dominant in shaping the marginal electricity price, leaving consumers exposed without additional policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Franken & Iegor Riepin & Tom Brown, 2026. "Accelerating fossil gas independence in Europe," Papers 2607.21048, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2607.21048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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