IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2603.14758.html

A Quantitative Model of Non-Marriage and Fertility: Bargaining over Leisure

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuharu Yanagimoto

Abstract

This paper introduces a new factor contributing to the decline in marriage and fertility: the growth of leisure technology. Over recent decades, high-income countries have experienced two notable shifts in household and family dynamics. First, there has been a significant decline in marriage rates and fertility. Second, time has increasingly been allocated to leisure activities. This paper presents a unified model of marriage and fertility, incorporating intra-household bargaining dynamics. The model, calibrated using data from Japan between 2019 and 2023, is employed to assess the impact of leisure technology growth on marriage and fertility during 2005-2009. The findings highlight that leisure technology growth makes single life relatively more appealing compared to marriage and parenthood. The model explains 21.1% of the decline in marriage and 73.1% of the decrease in fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuharu Yanagimoto, 2026. "A Quantitative Model of Non-Marriage and Fertility: Bargaining over Leisure," Papers 2603.14758, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.14758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.14758
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Kazuharu Yanagimoto & Tom Zohar, 2024. "On Causal Inference with Model-Based Outcomes," Papers 2403.19563, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    2. Cruces, Lidia, 2024. "A quantitative theory of the new life cycle of women's employment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Jeremy Lise & Ken Yamada, 2019. "Household Sharing and Commitment: Evidence from Panel Data on Individual Expenditures and Time Use," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2184-2219.
    4. Kaushik Basu, 2006. "Gender and Say: a Model of Household Behaviour with Endogenously Determined Balance of Power," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 558-580, April.
    5. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Matthias Doepke & Michèle Tertilt, 2019. "Does female empowerment promote economic development?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 309-343, December.
    3. Dieter Saelens, 2022. "Unitary or collective households? A nonparametric rationality and separability test using detailed data on consumption expenditures and time use," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 637-677, February.
    4. Mizuki Komura, 2013. "Tax reform and endogenous gender bargaining power," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 175-192, June.
    5. Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2015. "Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Klein, Matthew J., 2020. "Estimating Intra-household Bargaining Power When Outside Options Are Endogenous," Staff Paper Series 595, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    7. Turon, Hélène, 2022. "The Labour Supply of Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 15312, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Arthur Lewbel & Krishna Pendakur, 2024. "Estimating a model of inefficient cooperation and consumption in collective households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 865-907, September.
    9. Mizuki Komura, 2013. "Fertility and endogenous gender bargaining power," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 943-961, July.
    10. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," Working Papers 2022-012, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    11. Donni, Olivier & Molina, José Alberto, 2018. "Household Collective Models: Three Decades of Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 11915, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Takuya Obara & Yoshitomo Ogawa, 2020. "Optimal Taxation in an Endogenous Fertility Model with Non-Cooperative Couples," Discussion Paper Series 211, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2021.
    13. Van den Broeck, Goedele & Maertens, Miet, 2014. "Does female employment reduce fertility rates? Evidence from the Senegalese horticultural export sector," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182715, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Klein, Matthew J. & Barham, Bradford L., 2018. "Point Estimates of Household Bargaining Power Using Outside Options," Staff Paper Series 590, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    15. Alessandro Cigno, 2007. "A Theoretical Analysis of the Effects of Legislation on Marriage, Fertility, Domestic Division of Labour, and the Education of Children," CESifo Working Paper Series 2143, CESifo.
    16. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    17. Marcén, Miriam & Molina, José Alberto & Morales, Marina, 2018. "The effect of culture on the fertility decisions of immigrant women in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 15-28.
    18. Xiangdan Piao, 2023. "Intra-Household Income Management and Couple’s Relative Sharing of Income and Environment Sustainability in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Hwang, Yujung & Nguyen, Toan, 2025. "Is sex ratio a valid distribution factor in a collective model?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    20. World Bank & The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2024. "Albania - Country Gender Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 41900, The World Bank Group.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.14758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.