IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2403.19563.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Causal Inference with Model-Based Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Arkhangelsky
  • Kazuharu Yanagimoto
  • Tom Zohar

Abstract

This paper investigates causal inference for policies affecting group-level outcomes derived from microdata models. We formalize these outcomes using population moment conditions and show that standard one-step GMM estimators are generally inconsistent due to an endogenous weighting problem: policy-induced changes in the microdata distribution alter implicit GMM weights. In contrast, two-stage Minimum Distance (MD) estimators perform well when group sizes are sufficiently large, a statement we formalize. While MD estimators can become inconsistent in very small groups due to a policy-induced sample selection problem, we demonstrate this can be addressed by incorporating auxiliary population information.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Kazuharu Yanagimoto & Tom Zohar, 2024. "On Causal Inference with Model-Based Outcomes," Papers 2403.19563, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.19563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.19563
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2012. "Identifying Distributional Characteristics in Random Coefficients Panel Data Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 987-1020.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Iván Fernández-Val, 2018. "Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, with an Application to Immunization in India," NBER Working Papers 24678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. V Chernozhukov & W K Newey & R Singh, 2023. "A simple and general debiased machine learning theorem with finite-sample guarantees," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 110(1), pages 257-264.
    4. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    5. Martin Eckhoff Andresen & Emily Nix, 2022. "Can the child penalty be reduced?. Evaluating multiple policy interventions," Discussion Papers 983, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Vira Semenova & Victor Chernozhukov, 2021. "Debiased machine learning of conditional average treatment effects and other causal functions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 264-289.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," Working Papers 228, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Heiler, Phillip, 2024. "Heterogeneous treatment effect bounds under sample selection with an application to the effects of social media on political polarization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    4. Simon Calmar Andersen & Louise Beuchert & Phillip Heiler & Helena Skyt Nielsen, 2023. "A Guide to Impact Evaluation under Sample Selection and Missing Data: Teacher's Aides and Adolescent Mental Health," Papers 2308.04963, arXiv.org.
    5. Ganesh Karapakula, 2023. "Stable Probability Weighting: Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap," Papers 2301.05703, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    6. Jonathan Gruber & Kristiina Huttunen & Tuomas Kosonen, 2022. "Paying Moms to Stay Home: Short and Long Run Effects on Parents and Children," Working Papers 4, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    7. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences With Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    8. Yingheng Zhang & Haojie Li & Gang Ren, 2025. "Data-driven exploration of heterogeneous gasoline price elasticities using generalized random forests," Transportation, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 215-237, February.
    9. Vishalie Shah & Julia Hatamyar & Taufik Hidayat & Noemi Kreif, 2025. "Exploring the heterogeneous impacts of Indonesia's conditional cash transfer scheme (PKH) on maternal health care utilisation using instrumental causal forests," Papers 2501.12803, arXiv.org.
    10. Dalia Ghanem & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2022. "Selection and Parallel Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 9910, CESifo.
    11. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," CEPA Discussion Papers 64, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Kyle Myers & Wei Yang Tham, 2023. "Money, Time, and Grant Design," Papers 2312.06479, arXiv.org.
    13. Sara Rellstab, 2024. "Gender norms and the child penalty: evidence from the Dutch bible belt," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(45), pages 5428-5441, September.
    14. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Christian Hansen & Kengo Kato, 2018. "High-dimensional econometrics and regularized GMM," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Telegdy, Álmos, 2024. "Subsidized working capital loans and firm growth in times of crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    18. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    19. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Coury, Michael & Falconer, Liam & La Nauze, Andrea, 2024. "Wildfire smoke and private provision of public air-quality monitoring," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.19563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.