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Robust Econometrics for Growth-at-Risk

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  • Tobias Adrian
  • Yuya Sasaki
  • Yulong Wang

Abstract

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2025. "Robust Econometrics for Growth-at-Risk," Papers 2508.00263, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.00263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huixia Judy Wang & Deyuan Li, 2013. "Estimation of Extreme Conditional Quantiles Through Power Transformation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 1062-1074, September.
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    4. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    5. Wang, Hansheng & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2009. "Tail Index Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1233-1240.
    6. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
    7. Li, Qi & Racine, Jeffrey S, 2008. "Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional CDF and Quantile Functions With Mixed Categorical and Continuous Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 423-434.
    8. Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Stoykov, Marian Z., 2023. "Tail index estimation in the presence of covariates: Stock returns’ tail risk dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2266-2284.
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    10. repec:cup:macdyn:v:29:y:2025:i::p:-_46 is not listed on IDEAS
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