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Estimation of Extreme Conditional Quantiles Through Power Transformation

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  • Huixia Judy Wang
  • Deyuan Li

Abstract

The estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is an important issue in numerous disciplines. Quantile regression (QR) provides a natural way to capture the covariate effects at different tails of the response distribution. However, without any distributional assumptions, estimation from conventional QR is often unstable at the tails, especially for heavy-tailed distributions due to data sparsity. In this article, we develop a new three-stage estimation procedure that integrates QR and extreme value theory by estimating intermediate conditional quantiles using QR and extrapolating these estimates to tails based on extreme value theory. Using the power-transformed QR, the proposed method allows more flexibility than existing methods that rely on the linearity of quantiles on the original scale, while extending the applicability of parametric models to borrow information across covariates without resorting to nonparametric smoothing. In addition, we propose a test procedure to assess the commonality of extreme value index, which could be useful for obtaining more efficient estimation by sharing information across covariates. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed method and demonstrate its value through simulation study and the analysis of a medical cost data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixia Judy Wang & Deyuan Li, 2013. "Estimation of Extreme Conditional Quantiles Through Power Transformation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 1062-1074, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:108:y:2013:i:503:p:1062-1074
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.820134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huixia Judy Wang & Deyuan Li & Xuming He, 2012. "Estimation of High Conditional Quantiles for Heavy-Tailed Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1453-1464, December.
    2. Mu, Yunming & He, Xuming, 2007. "Power Transformation Toward a Linear Regression Quantile," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 269-279, March.
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    4. Yin, Guosheng & Zeng, Donglin & Li, Hui, 2008. "Power-Transformed Linear Quantile Regression With Censored Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 1214-1224.
    5. Gomes, M. Ivette & Pestana, Dinis, 2007. "A Sturdy Reduced-Bias Extreme Quantile (VaR) Estimator," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 280-292, March.
    6. He X. & Zhu L-X., 2003. "A Lack-of-Fit Test for Quantile Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 1013-1022, January.
    7. Wang, Hansheng & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2009. "Tail Index Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1233-1240.
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    7. Sottile, Gianluca & Frumento, Paolo, 2022. "Robust estimation and regression with parametric quantile functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    8. Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Fixed-k Inference for Conditional Extremal Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 829-837, April.
    9. Yaolan Ma & Bo Wei & Wei Huang, 2020. "A nonparametric estimator for the conditional tail index of Pareto-type distributions," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 83(1), pages 17-44, January.
    10. Norman Maswanganyi & Caston Sigauke & Edmore Ranganai, 2021. "Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
    11. Hao, Meiling & Lin, Yuanyuan & Shen, Guohao & Su, Wen, 2023. "Nonparametric inference on smoothed quantile regression process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Silvia Sarpietro & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Non-Existent Moments of Earnings Growth," Papers 2203.08014, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    13. Stéphane Girard & Gilles Claude Stupfler & Antoine Usseglio-Carleve, 2021. "Extreme Conditional Expectile Estimation in Heavy-Tailed Heteroscedastic Regression Models," Post-Print hal-03306230, HAL.
    14. Ma, Yaolan & Jiang, Yuexiang & Huang, Wei, 2018. "Empirical likelihood based inference for conditional Pareto-type tail index," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 114-121.
    15. Martin Karlsson & Yulong Wang & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2023. "Getting the Right Tail Right: Modeling Tails of Health Expenditure Distributions," NBER Working Papers 31444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Feiyu Jiang & Zifeng Zhao & Xiaofeng Shao, 2022. "Jiang, Zhao and Shao's reply to the Discussion of ‘The First Discussion Meeting on Statistical Aspects of the Covid‐19 Pandemic’," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1849-1854, October.
    17. Chen, Zhao & Cheng, Vivian Xinyi & Liu, Xu, 2024. "Reprint: Hypothesis testing on high dimensional quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    18. Mei Ling Huang & Christine Nguyen, 2018. "A nonparametric approach for quantile regression," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Georgios Tsiotas, 2020. "On the use of power transformations in CAViaR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 296-312, March.
    20. Takuma Yoshida, 2021. "Additive models for extremal quantile regression with Pareto-type distributions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(1), pages 103-134, March.
    21. He, Fengyang & Wang, Huixia Judy & Zhou, Yuejin, 2022. "Extremal quantile autoregression for heavy-tailed time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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