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Evaluating COVID 19 Feature Contributions to Bitcoin Return Forecasting: Methodology Based on LightGBM and Genetic Optimization

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  • Imen Mahmoud
  • Andrei Velichko

Abstract

This study proposes a novel methodological framework integrating a LightGBM regression model and genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to systematically evaluate the contribution of COVID-19-related indicators to Bitcoin return prediction. The primary objective was not merely to forecast Bitcoin returns but rather to determine whether including pandemic-related health data significantly enhances prediction accuracy. A comprehensive dataset comprising daily Bitcoin returns and COVID-19 metrics (vaccination rates, hospitalizations, testing statistics) was constructed. Predictive models, trained with and without COVID-19 features, were optimized using GA over 31 independent runs, allowing robust statistical assessment. Performance metrics (R2, RMSE, MAE) were statistically compared through distribution overlaps and Mann-Whitney U tests. Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) analysis quantified individual feature contributions. Results indicate that COVID-19 indicators significantly improved model performance, particularly in capturing extreme market fluctuations (R2 increased by 40%, RMSE decreased by 2%, both highly significant statistically). Among COVID-19 features, vaccination metrics, especially the 75th percentile of fully vaccinated individuals, emerged as dominant predictors. The proposed methodology extends existing financial analytics tools by incorporating public health signals, providing investors and policymakers with refined indicators to navigate market uncertainty during systemic crises.

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  • Imen Mahmoud & Andrei Velichko, 2025. "Evaluating COVID 19 Feature Contributions to Bitcoin Return Forecasting: Methodology Based on LightGBM and Genetic Optimization," Papers 2508.00078, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.00078
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    1. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
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