IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2405.12467.html

Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with 2-period Finite Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Hao
  • Hiroyuki Kasahara

Abstract

This paper extends the work of Arcidiacono and Miller (2011, 2019) by introducing a novel characterization of finite dependence within dynamic discrete choice models, demonstrating that numerous models display 2-period finite dependence. We recast finite dependence as a problem of sequentially searching for weights and introduce a computationally efficient method for determining these weights by utilizing the Kronecker product structure embedded in state transitions. With the estimated weights, we develop a computationally attractive Conditional Choice Probability estimator with 2-period finite dependence. The computational efficacy of our proposed estimator is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hao & Hiroyuki Kasahara, 2024. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with 2-period Finite Dependence," Papers 2405.12467, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.12467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.12467
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Doug J. Chung & Thomas Steenburgh & K. Sudhir, 2014. "Do Bonuses Enhance Sales Productivity? A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Bonus-Based Compensation Plans," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 165-187, March.
    3. Nikhil Agarwal & Itai Ashlagi & Michael A. Rees & Paulo Somaini & Daniel Waldinger, 2021. "Equilibrium Allocations Under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence From Deceased Donor Kidneys," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 37-76, January.
    4. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "A dynamic oligopoly game of the US airline industry: Estimation and policy experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 156-173.
    5. Alfred Galichon & Bernard Salanié, 2022. "Cupid’s Invisible Hand: Social Surplus and Identification in Matching Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2600-2629.
    6. Sanjog Misra & Harikesh Nair, 2011. "A structural model of sales-force compensation dynamics: Estimation and field implementation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 211-257, September.
    7. Andrew Sweeting, 2013. "Dynamic Product Positioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Effect of Fees for Musical Performance Rights on the Commercial Radio Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 1763-1803, September.
    8. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & V. Kerry Smith & Christopher Timmins, 2013. "The New Economics of Equilibrium Sorting and Policy Evaluation Using Housing Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1007-1062, December.
    9. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, "undated". "Soultion and Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models Using Euler Equations," Working Papers 2016-32, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 May 2016.
    10. Peter Arcidiacono & Patrick Bayer & Jason R. Blevins & Paul B. Ellickson, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 889-931.
    11. Mitsuru Igami & Nathan Yang, 2016. "Unobserved heterogeneity in dynamic games: Cannibalization and preemptive entry of hamburger chains in Canada," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 483-521, July.
    12. Alvin Murphy, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 243-267, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    3. Hema Yoganarasimhan, 2013. "The Value of Reputation in an Online Freelance Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 860-891, November.
    4. Raphael Corbi & Fabio Miessi Sanches, 2022. "Church Competition, Religious Subsidies and the Rise of Evangelicalism: a Dynamic Structural Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_09, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    5. Li, Haoyang & Zhao, Jinhua, "undated". "What Drives (No) Adoption of New Irrigation Technologies: A Structural Dynamic Estimation Approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274474, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2025. "Entry Order, Performance, And Geography: The Case Of The Convenience‐Store Industry In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(2), pages 787-822, May.
    7. Jason R. Blevins, 2026. "Identification and estimation of continuous‐time dynamic discrete choice games," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(1), pages 254-296, January.
    8. De Groote, Olivier & Rho, Minyoung, 2024. "Matching Disadvantaged Children to Day Care: Evidence from a Centralized Platform," IZA Discussion Papers 17547, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Bryan Bollinger & Ulrich Doraszelski & Kenneth L. Judd & Ryan C. McDevitt, 2024. "The timing and location of entry in growing markets: subgame perfection at work," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 55(2), pages 169-198, June.
    10. Victor Aguirregabiria & Mathieu Marcoux, 2021. "Imposing equilibrium restrictions in the estimation of dynamic discrete games," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1223-1271, November.
    11. Doug J. Chung & Byungyeon Kim & Byoung G. Park, 2021. "The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7046-7074, November.
    12. Raphael Corbi & Fabio Miessi Sanches, 2024. "Church Tax Exemption and Structure of Religious Markets: a Dynamic Structural Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    13. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Denis Nekipelov & Minjung Park, 2016. "Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 271-323, December.
    14. Lizhen Xu & Jason A. Duan & Yu Jeffrey Hu & Yuan Cheng & Yan Zhu, 2019. "Forward-Looking Behavior in Mobile Data Consumption and Targeted Promotion Design: A Dynamic Structural Model," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 616-635, June.
    15. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Przemysław Jeziorski, 2023. "Empirical Model of Dynamic Merger Enforcement—Choosing Ownership Caps in U.S. Radio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4457-4480, August.
    17. Tobias Salz & Emanuel Vespa, 2020. "Estimating dynamic games of oligopolistic competition: an experimental investigation," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(2), pages 447-469, June.
    18. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Yingyao Hu & Yi Xin, 2019. "Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Gu, Jiaying & Luo, Yao, 2021. "Sufficient statistics for unobserved heterogeneity in structural dynamic logit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 280-311.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.12467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.