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Dark Matter in (Volatility and) Equity Option Risk Premiums

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  • Gurdip Bakshi
  • John Crosby
  • Xiaohui Gao

Abstract

Emphasizing the statistics of jumps crossing the strike and local time, we develop a decomposition of equity option risk premiums. Operationalizing this theoretical treatment, we equip the pricing kernel process with unspanned risks, embed (unspanned) jump risks, and allow equity return volatility to contain unspanned risks. Unspanned risks are consistent with negative risk premiums for jumps crossing the strike and local time and imply negative risk premiums for out-of-the-money call options and straddles. The empirical evidence from weekly and farther-dated index options is supportive of our theory of economically relevant unspanned risks and reveals ``dark matter" in option risk premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurdip Bakshi & John Crosby & Xiaohui Gao, 2023. "Dark Matter in (Volatility and) Equity Option Risk Premiums," Papers 2303.16371, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.16371
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    3. Stahl, Philip & Blauth, Jérôme, 2025. "Martingale defects in the volatility surface and bubble conditions in the underlying," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 154110, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

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