IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dar/wpaper/154110.html

Martingale defects in the volatility surface and bubble conditions in the underlying

Author

Listed:
  • Stahl, Philip
  • Blauth, Jérôme

Abstract

The martingale theory of bubbles enables testing for asset price bubbles by analyzing option prices. As recently shown by Piiroinen et al. (Asset price bubbles: an option-based indicator, 2018), the SABR model is a strict local martingale when its parameterization implies a positive correlation between stock and option prices. We operationalize this theoretical result and analyze stock price bubbles in 2576 stocks over 26 years. Martingale defect conditions are absorbed quickly by options markets, but identify high proportions in significant and permanent changes in distribution of price returns, option trading activity, short interest in the underlying, and institutional ownership. These results confirm many common assumptions about stock price bubbles. These bubbles are temporally clustered, and tend to occur in periods of positive market development. Martingale defects are rare in market corrections, which indicates that they are a result of overoptimistic speculation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stahl, Philip & Blauth, Jérôme, 2025. "Martingale defects in the volatility surface and bubble conditions in the underlying," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 154110, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:154110
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-023-09200-x
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/154110/
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://tuprints.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/29147
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11147-023-09200-x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11147-023-09200-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Loewenstein & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Local martingales, arbitrage, and viability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(1), pages 135-161.
    2. Steven L. Heston & Mark Loewenstein & Gregory A. Willard, 2007. "Options and Bubbles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 359-390.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. John R. Conlon, 2004. "Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 927-936, May.
    5. Francesca Biagini & Hans Föllmer & Sorin Nedelcu, 2014. "Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-326, April.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Inferring financial bubbles from option data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1013-1046, November.
    7. Camerer, Colin, 1989. "Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
    8. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Ari-Pekka Perkkio, 2020. "Optional projection under equivalent local martingale measures," Papers 2003.09940, arXiv.org.
    9. Gurdip Bakshi & John Crosby & Xiaohui Gao, 2022. "Dark Matter in (Volatility and) Equity Option Risk Premiums," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 70(6), pages 3108-3124, November.
    10. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
    11. Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Tobias Schoden & Martin Simon, 2018. "Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator," Papers 1805.07403, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Stahl & Jérôme Blauth, 2024. "Martingale defects in the volatility surface and bubble conditions in the underlying," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 85-111, April.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2021. "Asset Price Bubbles," Springer Finance, in: Continuous-Time Asset Pricing Theory, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 75-90, Springer.
    3. Martin HERDEGEN & Martin SCHWEIZER, 2015. "Economics-Based Financial Bubbles (and Why They Imply Strict Local Martingales)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-05, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    7. Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Tobias Schoden & Martin Simon, 2018. "Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator," Papers 1805.07403, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    8. Martin Herdegen & Martin Schweizer, 2016. "Strong Bubbles And Strict Local Martingales," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-44, June.
    9. Robert A. Jarrow & Simon S. Kwok, 2023. "An explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 469-479, June.
    10. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 19, July-Dece.
    11. Alexander M. G. Cox & Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obloj, 2014. "Robust pricing and hedging under trading restrictions and the emergence of local martingale models," Papers 1406.0551, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    12. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Eckhard Platen, 2008. "A Unifying Approach to Asset Pricing," Research Paper Series 227, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Li, Chenxu & Chen, Dachuan, 2016. "Estimating jump–diffusions using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 51-70.
    15. A. Fiori Maccioni, 2011. "The risk neutral valuation paradox," Working Paper CRENoS 201112, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    16. Robert A. Jarrow & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Inferring financial bubbles from option data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1013-1046, November.
    17. Hu, Yuan & Lindquist, W. Brent & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Shirvani, Abootaleb & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2022. "Market complete option valuation using a Jarrow-Rudd pricing tree with skewness and kurtosis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Mohamed Abdelghani & Alexander Melnikov, 2025. "Modeling Financial Bubbles with Optional Semimartingales in Nonstandard Probability Spaces," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, March.
    19. Jia‐Hau Guo & Lung‐Fu Chang, 2020. "Repeated Richardson extrapolation and static hedging of barrier options under the CEV model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 974-988, June.
    20. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Log-optimal portfolio without NFLVR: existence, complete characterization, and duality," Papers 1807.06449, arXiv.org.
    21. Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:154110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dekanatssekretariat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivthdde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.