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Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale

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  • Francesca Biagini
  • Hans Föllmer
  • Sorin Nedelcu

Abstract

In an incomplete financial market model, we study a flow in the space of equivalent martingale measures and the corresponding shifting perception of the fundamental value of a given asset. This allows us to capture the birth of a perceived bubble and to describe it as an initial submartingale which then turns into a supermartingale before it falls back to its initial value zero. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Biagini & Hans Föllmer & Sorin Nedelcu, 2014. "Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-326, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:18:y:2014:i:2:p:297-326
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-013-0221-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beissner, Patrick & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2018. "The Term Structure of Sharpe Ratios and Arbitrage-Free Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 72, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. David Criens & Kathrin Glau & Zorana Grbac, 2015. "Martingale property of exponential semimartingales: a note on explicit conditions and applications to financial models," Papers 1506.08127, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    4. Aditi Dandapani & Philip Protter, 2019. "Strict Local Martingales Via Filtration Enlargement," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(01), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz, 2018. "A risk-neutral equilibrium leading to uncertain volatility pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 281-295, April.
    6. Christoph Belak & Sören Christensen & Olaf Menkens, 2016. "Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization In A Market With Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-36, March.
    7. Dandapani, Aditi & Protter, Philip, 2022. "Strict local martingales and the Khasminskii test for explosions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 716-728.
    8. Martin Herdegen & Dorte Kreher, 2021. "Bubbles in discrete time models," Papers 2104.12740, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    9. Martin HERDEGEN & Martin SCHWEIZER, 2015. "Economics-Based Financial Bubbles (and Why They Imply Strict Local Martingales)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-05, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. David Criens & Kathrin Glau & Zorana Grbac, 2017. "Martingale property of exponential semimartingales: a note on explicit conditions and applications to asset price and Libor models," Post-Print hal-03898993, HAL.
    11. Francesca Biagini & Thomas Reitsam, 2019. "Asset Price Bubbles in market models with proportional transaction costs," Papers 1911.10149, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    12. Martin Herdegen & Martin Schweizer, 2016. "Strong Bubbles And Strict Local Martingales," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-44, June.
    13. Philip Protter & Aditi Dandapani, 2019. "Strict Local Martingales and the Khasminskii test for Explosions," Papers 1903.02383, arXiv.org.
    14. Roseline Bilina Falafala & Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2016. "Relative asset price bubbles," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 135-160, May.
    15. Martin Herdegen & Dörte Kreher, 2022. "Bubbles in discrete-time models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 899-925, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Strict local martingales; Submartingales; Equivalent martingale measures; Stochastic volatility; 91G99; 60G07; 60G44; C60; C65; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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