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Bubbles in discrete time models

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  • Martin Herdegen
  • Dorte Kreher

Abstract

We introduce a new definition of speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on the discounted stock price losing mass at some finite drop-down under an equivalent martingale measure. We provide equivalent probabilistic characterisations of this definition and give examples of discrete-time martingales that are speculative bubbles and those that are not. In the Markovian case, we provide sufficient analytic conditions for the presence of speculative bubbles. We also show that the existence of speculative bubbles is directly linked to the existence of a non-trivial solution to a linear Volterra integral equation of the second kind involving the Markov kernel. Finally, we show that our definition of speculative bubbles in discrete time is consistent with the strict local martingale definition of speculative bubbles in continuous time in the sense that a properly discretised strict local martingale in continuous time is a speculative bubble in discrete time.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Herdegen & Dorte Kreher, 2021. "Bubbles in discrete time models," Papers 2104.12740, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.12740
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kardaras, Constantinos & Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "Strict local martingales and bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64967, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Erhan Bayraktar & Constantinos Kardaras & Hao Xing, 2012. "Strict local martingale deflators and valuing American call-type options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 275-291, April.
    3. Martin Herdegen & Martin Schweizer, 2016. "Strong Bubbles And Strict Local Martingales," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-44, June.
    4. Francesca Biagini & Hans Föllmer & Sorin Nedelcu, 2014. "Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-326, April.
    5. Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
    6. Hardy Hulley & Johannes Ruf, 2019. "Weak Tail Conditions for Local Martingales," Published Paper Series 2019-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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