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Robust pricing and hedging under trading restrictions and the emergence of local martingale models

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  • Alexander M. G. Cox
  • Zhaoxu Hou
  • Jan Obloj

Abstract

We consider the pricing of derivatives in a setting with trading restrictions, but without any probabilistic assumptions on the underlying model, in discrete and continuous time. In particular, we assume that European put or call options are traded at certain maturities, and the forward price implied by these option prices may be strictly decreasing in time. In discrete time, when call options are traded, the short-selling restrictions ensure no arbitrage, and we show that classical duality holds between the smallest super-replication price and the supremum over expectations of the payoff over all supermartingale measures. More surprisingly in the case where the only vanilla options are put options, we show that there is a duality gap. Embedding the discrete time model into a continuous time setup, we make a connection with (strict) local-martingale models, and derive framework and results often seen in the literature on financial bubbles. This connection suggests a certain natural interpretation of many existing results in the literature on financial bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. G. Cox & Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obloj, 2014. "Robust pricing and hedging under trading restrictions and the emergence of local martingale models," Papers 1406.0551, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1406.0551
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Cox & David Hobson, 2005. "Local martingales, bubbles and option prices," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 477-492, October.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5647 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Hugonnier, Julien, 2012. "Rational asset pricing bubbles and portfolio constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(6), pages 2260-2302.
    5. David G. Hobson, 1998. "Robust hedging of the lookback option," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 329-347.
    6. Freddy Delbaen & Walter Schachermayer, 1994. "Arbitrage And Free Lunch With Bounded Risk For Unbounded Continuous Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 343-348.
    7. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    8. Arash Fahim & Yu-Jui Huang, 2014. "Model-independent Superhedging under Portfolio Constraints," Papers 1402.2599, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    9. Erhan Bayraktar & Zhou Zhou, 2017. "On Arbitrage And Duality Under Model Uncertainty And Portfolio Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 988-1012, October.
    10. Alexander Cox & Jan Obłój, 2011. "Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 573-605, September.
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    12. Peter Carr & Travis Fisher & Johannes Ruf, 2014. "On the hedging of options on exploding exchange rates," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 115-144, January.
    13. Pham, Huyen & Touzi, Nizar, 1999. "The fundamental theorem of asset pricing with cone constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 265-279, March.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. Mark H. A. Davis & David G. Hobson, 2007. "The Range Of Traded Option Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14.
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    17. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    18. Mathias Beiglböck & Pierre Henry-Labordère & Friedrich Penkner, 2013. "Model-independent bounds for option prices—a mass transport approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 477-501, July.
    19. Mathias Beiglbock & Pierre Henry-Labord`ere & Friedrich Penkner, 2011. "Model-independent Bounds for Option Prices: A Mass Transport Approach," Papers 1106.5929, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    20. Elyégs Jouini & Hédi Kallal, 1995. "Arbitrage In Securities Markets With Short-Sales Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 197-232.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Biagini & Jacopo Mancin, 2016. "Robust Financial Bubbles," Papers 1602.05471, arXiv.org.

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